England · Premier League · 19 Oct 2026, 20:00

TottenhamvsCoventry

Upcoming · kicks off 20:00

Our callNo call: we looked closely and decided against it. Reasons are in the report below.

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 14:25
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 14:35
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 19 Oct 2026, 14:35

Drop: Tottenham are unlucky on points and better on xG, so the Coventry gap goes against the data

Market17%Coventry win, margin in
Model29.4%Coventry win

Odds movement

Tipsport 1X2 · 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 to 19 Oct 2026, 19:45

FirstLatestChange

Tottenham1.521.54+0.02

Draw4.764.70-0.06

Coventry6.135.88-0.25

The match

Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.

Tottenham vs Coventry · Oddvise

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Tottenham winmarket 65% · model 45%

Drawmarket 21% · model 26%

Coventry winmarket 17% · model 29%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

1.57 - 1.23Tottenham - Coventry

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 12%2–1 9%1–0 9%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Tottenham goals, columns are Coventry goals
Tottenham ↓ · Coventry →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	7	5	2	<1	<1
1	9	12	7	3	<1	<1
2	7	9	6	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	3	1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Tottenham and 5 for Coventry.

Goal markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Six matches each.

TottenhamCoventry

	Tottenham	Coventry
Goals per game	0.5	0.8
Shots on target	3.7	3.7
Big chances	2.5	1.5
Possession	59%	38%
Goals conceded	1.5	1.8
Duels won	49%	48%

Efficiency and defending

Tottenham make and miss more chances; Coventry defend deep.

TottenhamCoventry

2.0Big chances missed per game1.2

2Clean sheets1

18.3Tackles per game9.7

20.3Clearances per game30.7

Where they stand

Standing and context

Premier League after six matches each.

Metric	Tottenham	Coventry
Record	0W 3D 3L (3:9)	2W 0D 4L (5:11)
Points	3	6
Last match	Sat 10/10, Man Utd 1-1 Tottenham	Mon 12/10, Coventry 4-1 Newcastle
Manager	Roberto De Zerbi	Frank Lampard
Referee	Andy Madley: 3.1 yellows a match
Venue	Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Kick-off	Mon 19 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon

TottenhamvsCoventry

Match report

Odds movement

The match

TottenhamvsCoventry

Match report

Odds movement

The match

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Team comparison

Season profile

Efficiency and defending

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

Points against expectation

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

The two XIs compared

Absences

Where they stand

Standing and context