Advice on odds, with proof.

What a tip is

A tip names one market in one match, the odds we saw, a stake in units, our estimated probability, a risk level and a confidence score from 1 to 5, with the reasoning and numbers behind it.

We publish it before kickoff. After that it can never be edited or deleted, by anyone, including us. If we get something wrong we publish a correction as a new tip, and both stay visible.

Where the probabilities come from

A statistical model estimates the chance of each outcome from team strength: how many goals a team tends to score and concede, adjusted for home advantage, recent form and who is missing.

An AI writes the explanation you read, but it does not choose the probability. The number comes from the model, so it can be tested and reproduced.

What “edge” means

Odds imply a probability: odds of 2.00 imply 50%. If our model says the real chance is 55%, the edge is 5 percentage points. We only publish a tip when the edge is large enough to matter, and we publish the matches we skip, with the reason.

An edge is an estimate, not a promise. Models are wrong often, and a short run of results proves very little.

How we judge ourselves

Profit and ROI are the obvious numbers, but they are noisy. We also show CLV (closing line value): whether the odds we gave were better than the odds at kickoff. Beating the closing odds consistently is the best early sign of a real edge.

We also check our confidence scores: tips marked 3/5 should win about as often as the model said they would.

Stakes and units

Stakes are in units, never in money. 1u is 1% of your bankroll. We suggest between 0.5u and 1u, and never more. Only stake what you can afford to lose.

What we do not claim

Oddvise is new. Our track record starts with our first published tip, and until it has a few hundred tips it says little about the long run.

Bookmakers build a margin into their odds and are good at pricing popular matches. Beating them over time is hard, and it is possible that we do not. That is exactly why the record is public.