England · Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00
Brentford
1 – 0
Liverpool
Live
Our callLiverpool to winMatch result · Tipsport
Odds2.52
Stake0.5u
RiskMedium
ConfidenceConfidence 1/5
Market (odds)39.7%
Our model42.0%
Edge+2.4 pp
Fair odds (model)2.38
Published 17 Oct 2026, 14:36 · cannot be edited · model poisson-dc-2
Why we back Liverpool
Our model gives Liverpool win a 42.0% chance, against 39.7% implied by Tipsport's odds of 2.52: a gap of 2.4 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model probability for Liverpool win: 42.0%. Probability implied by Tipsport at 2.52: 39.7%.
- 2Model expected goals: Brentford 1.47, Liverpool 1.67.
What could go wrong
- In backtests on about 21,000 real matches this model has not yet shown an edge over the market. A gap this large can mean the model is wrong rather than the market.
- The model uses league ratings only. It does not know lineups, injuries or rest days.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Brentford winmarket 36% · model 33%
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2. First reading 16 Oct 2026, 15:00, latest 17 Oct 2026, 15:03.
FirstLatestChange
Brentford2.452.79+0.34
Draw3.743.68-0.06
Liverpool2.852.52-0.33
Our price when we published was 2.52. At the latest reading Liverpool pays 2.52.
The match
The match is on. During play we only update the score; key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.
18+ · Gamble responsibly. Tips are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Only bet with licensed operators.