Italy · Serie A · 19 Oct 2026, 17:30

Monza4 – 0Cagliari

Finished1st Half 1–0 · 2nd Half 3–0

Our reportDrop: Cagliari are far ahead of their xG, so the data go against the model's gapRead it →

Key moments

MonzaCagliari

Kouadio E. (Mota D.)⚽39'
Varela G. (assist Ondoa F.)⚽47'
Robinson J. (assist Varela G.)⚽66'
Varela G.⚽79'

All events

MonzaCagliari

1st Half1–0

Kouadio E. (Mota D.)⚽39'

2nd Half3–0

Varela G. (assist Ondoa F.)⚽47'
53'⇄Fadera A. for Nzola M.
Colpani A. for Mota D.⇄64'
Robinson J. (assist Varela G.)⚽

Line-ups

Monza

Starting line-up

14Akinsanmiro E.
19Birindelli S.
44Carboni A.
2Goglichidze S.
60Kouadio E.
7Mangas R.
47Mota D.
8Ondoa F.
46Robinson J.
1Tornqvist N.GK
9Varela G.

Substitutes (12)

At a glance

MonzaCagliari

2.04Expected goals (xG)1.90

45%Ball possession55%

14Total shots16

6Shots on target5

Statistics

MonzaCagliari

Top stats

2.04Expected goals (xG)1.90

45%Ball possession55%

Monza vs Cagliari · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 14:25
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 14:29
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 19 Oct 2026, 14:29

Drop: Cagliari are far ahead of their xG, so the data go against the model's gap

Market42%Monza, margin in
Model39.5%Cagliari win vs 30.3% priced
xG per game1.87 / 1.04Monza / Cagliari, 6 matches
Points vs xPTS-5.4 / +7.0Monza / Cagliari
Goals against vs xGA15 / 3conceded: Monza 9.6 / Cagliari 11.2 expected
Rest8 / 8 daysMonza / Cagliari

1Model: Cagliari 39.5% against 30.3% from the price (3.30 at Tipsport, margin in): a gap of 9.2 pp.
2Cagliari have 13 points where xG expects 6.0, and conceded 3 goals on 11.2 expected.
3Monza have 4 points where xG expects 9.4; their xG per game (1.87) is well above Cagliari (1.04).
4The data say Cagliari are overrated by results: the gap is treated as noise and dropped.

Opportunities

Monza have 4 points on 9.4 xPTS, so their results are due to improve, which the price already allows for.

Risks

Six matches per team: xG and xPTS gaps are noisy.
Monza concede 2.5 goals a game and have no clean sheet.
Monza lose a back-line player to suspension (Lucchesi); Goglichidze steps in.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests, so a gap like this is treated as noise.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Monza winmarket 42% · model 34%

Drawmarket 30% · model 27%

Cagliari winmarket 30% · model 39%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

1.3 - 1.42Monza - Cagliari

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Six matches each.

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

xG per game this season, six matches each.

MonzaCagliari

1.87xG for1.04

1.60xG against1.86

Points against expectation

Cagliari are about seven points ahead of their xG; Monza five behind.

MonzaCagliari

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Oldest first. The thin bar under each result is how unlikely it was given the odds.

Monza3W 2D 5L

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Monza3-4-2-1 · avg rating 6.62

7.0Varela

6.0Ngonge

6.7Mota

Where they stand

Standing and context

Serie A after six matches each.

Metric	Monza	Cagliari
Record	1W 1D 4L (9:15)	4W 1D 1L (6:3)
Points	4	13
Last match	Sun 11/10, Lazio 3-1 Monza	Sun 11/10, Cagliari 1-1 Juventus
Manager	Ivan Jurić	Fabio Pisacane
Referee	Andrea Calzavara: 5.3 yellows, 0.18 reds a match
Venue	U-Power Stadium, Monza
Kick-off	Mon 19 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Screening · 14:25 · Candidate: Cagliari to win at 3.30, +9.2 pp against the market

Cagliari to win: model 39.5% against 29.5% in the market, odds 3.30.
A gap of 9.2 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Monza ↓ · Cagliari →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	9	7	3	1	<1
1	8	13	9	4	1	<1
2	6	8	6	3	<1	<1
3	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Monza	Cagliari
Goals per game	1.5	1.0
Shots on target	6.0	3.8
Big chances	4.0	1.3
Possession	44%	39%
Goals conceded	2.5	0.5
Duels won	49%	47%

Monza ↓ · Cagliari →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	9	7	3	1	<1
1	8	13	9	4	1	<1
2	6	8	6	3	<1	<1
3	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Monza ↓ · Cagliari →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	9	7	3	1	<1
1	8	13	9	4	1	<1
2	6	8	6	3	<1	<1
3	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

1st Half1–0

2nd Half3–0

Line-ups

Monza

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

After the match

What we expected against what happened

Key moments

All events

1st Half1–0

2nd Half3–0

Line-ups

Monza

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

After the match

What we expected against what happened

Cagliari

Starting line-up

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

Monza: expected line-up

Cagliari: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Team comparison

Season profile

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

Points against expectation

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Goal markets according to the model

Efficiency and defending

The two XIs compared

Absences

Monza ↓ · Cagliari →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	9	7	3	1	<1
1	8	13	9	4	1	<1
2	6	8	6	3	<1	<1
3	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
4	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1