Italy · Serie A · 25 Oct 2026, 15:00
GenoavsVenezia
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
- Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:50
- Final checkNot needed
Dropped: Genoa score 0.7 a game and Venezia create more, so the 2.9 pp gap has no support
- Model49.6%Genoa win
- Market44.7%Genoa win, margin out
- Goals per game0.7 / 0.9Genoa / Venezia
- Big chances1.3 / 2.7Genoa / Venezia, per game
- Out or doubtful5 / 5Genoa / Venezia
- 1Model gives Genoa 49.6%; the market 44.7% (margin out), Tipsport 2.14.
- 2Venezia have more shots on target (4.3 v 2.9) and big chances (2.7 v 1.3).
Opportunities
- Genoa concede 1.9 a game against 2.3 and play at home.
- Venezia have won one of their last five league games.
Risks
- Genoa have no clean sheet in seven and have scored five goals.
- Venezia hold 54% of the ball against 44%.
- Doubts: Ehizibue and Amorim (Genoa), Correia (Venezia); both XIs are predicted.
- Seven matches each: noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 12%1–0 11%2–1 10%
| Genoa ↓ · Venezia → | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
Serie A, seven matches each.
| Metric | Genoa | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 17th, 4 pts | 20th, 3 pts |
| Goals | 5 for, 13 against | 6 for, 16 against |
| Last five | L D L W L | L L L L W |
| Manager | Daniele De Rossi | Davide Nicola |
| Referee | Simone Sozza | 0.19 / 4.57 cards |
Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Genoa to win at 2.14, +2.9 pp against the market
- Genoa to win: model 49.6% against 44.7% in the market, odds 2.14.
- A gap of 2.9 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 to 24 Oct 2026, 19:09
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.