Spain · LaLiga · 26 Oct 2026, 20:00
SevillavsOsasuna
Upcoming · kicks off 20:00
Our callNo call yet: our analysis is under way.
See the calls of the day →Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 15:53
- Detailed analysisNext
- Final checkDue about 18:45
CandidateScreening · 26 Oct 2026, 15:53
Candidate: Osasuna to win at 4.73, +5.0 pp against the market
- Model26.1%chance of the pick
- Market20.8%without the margin
- Gap+5.0 ppminimum 2 pp
- Odds4.73Tipsport
- 1Osasuna to win: model 26.1% against 20.8% in the market, odds 4.73.
- 2A gap of 5.0 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- 3League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
Opportunities
- The odds look long by 5.0 pp on Osasuna to win.
Risks
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
- The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds with the bookmaker's margin taken out.
Sevilla winmarket 51% · model 48%
Drawmarket 28% · model 26%
Osasuna winmarket 21% · model 26%
Expected goals
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
SevillaOsasuna
1.59Expected goals1.12
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 25 Oct 2026, 20:00 to 26 Oct 2026, 11:39
FirstLatestChange
Sevilla1.931.92-0.01
Draw3.473.54+0.07
Osasuna4.484.73+0.25
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.