Europe · Champions League · 20 Oct 2026, 20:00

StuttgartvsAtl. Madrid

Upcoming · kicks off 20:00

Our callNo call: we looked closely and decided against it. Reasons are in the report below.

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 10:58
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 11:49
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 20 Oct 2026, 11:49

Dropped: Atlético have the better numbers, and no other market shows a gap the data support

Market29%Stuttgart, without the margin
Model44%Stuttgart

Odds movement

Tipsport 1X2 · 19 Oct 2026, 20:01 to 20 Oct 2026, 10:33

FirstLatestChange

Stuttgart3.233.33+0.10

Draw3.963.99+0.03

Atl. Madrid2.152.09-0.06

The match

Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.

Stuttgart vs Atl. Madrid · Oddvise

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Stuttgart winmarket 30% · model 44%

Drawmarket 25% · model 23%

Atl. Madrid winmarket 48% · model 33%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

1.91 - 1.65Stuttgart - Atl. Madrid

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 9%2–1 9%1–2 7%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Stuttgart goals, columns are Atl. Madrid goals
Stuttgart ↓ · Atl. Madrid →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3	4	4	2	<1	<1
1	5	9	7	4	2	<1
2	5	9	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	5	2

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Stuttgart and 5 for Atl. Madrid.

Goal markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.

Stuttgart to win, Tipsport

The price drifted since last night.

Stuttgart: 3.23 → 3.33 (drifted)

Other markets: model against the odds

bwin prices with the margin taken out. The gaps are all on Stuttgart's side, which the data do not back.

Stuttgart or drawmarket 53% · model 67%

Draw no bet: Stuttgartmarket 38% · model 57%

Both teams scoremarket 66% · model 69%

Over 2.5 goalsmarket 66% · model 69%

Over 3.5 goalsmarket 45% · model 48%

Team comparison

Season profile

League numbers per game (6 and 9 matches); big chances from the two Champions League games.

StuttgartAtl. Madrid

	Stuttgart	Atl. Madrid
Goals per game	1.3	2.1
xG per game	2.22	1.94
Goals conceded	1.7	0.9
xG against	2.63	1.11
Points per game	1.0	2.4
Big chances (Europe)	5.5	1.5

In the Champions League so far

Two matches each: Stuttgart won both, Atlético one.

StuttgartAtl. Madrid

3.0Goals per game1.5

5.5Shots on target per game4.5

63%Possession56%

49%Duels won45%

Where they stand

Standing and context

League and Champions League after the weekend.

Metric	Stuttgart	Atlético Madrid
League	6 pts from 6 (2W 4L, 8:10)	22 pts from 9 (7W 1D 1L, 19:8)
Champions League	4th, 6 pts	15th, 3 pts
Last match	Fri 17/10, Hamburger SV 1-0 Stuttgart	Fri 17/10, Espanyol 0-1 Atlético
Manager	Sebastian Hoeneß	Diego Simeone

Item	Detail
Referee	Serdar Gözübüyük: 3.60 yellows, 0.17 reds a match
Venue	MHP Arena, Stuttgart
Kick-off	Tue 20 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon
Previous meetings	One

StuttgartvsAtl. Madrid

Match report

Odds movement

The match

StuttgartvsAtl. Madrid

Match report

Odds movement

The match

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Stuttgart to win, Tipsport

Other markets: model against the odds

Team comparison

Season profile

In the Champions League so far

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

Points against expectation

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

The two XIs compared

Absences

Where they stand

Standing and context

Head to head, referee and venue

Referee and venue