Netherlands · Eredivisie · 25 Oct 2026, 11:15

Sittard0 – 0Excelsior

Live · 23'

Our callNo call: we looked closely and decided against it. Reasons are in the report below.

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:11
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 09:13
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 25 Oct 2026, 09:13

Drop: Sittard's 3 pp gap is thin and the numbers behind it are mixed

Model41%Sittard win
Market36%Sittard win at 2.66, margin included

Odds movement

Tipsport 1X2 · 24 Oct 2026, 13:15 to 25 Oct 2026, 11:15

FirstLatestChange

Sittard2.362.73+0.37

Draw3.743.49-0.25

Excelsior2.822.54-0.28

The match

Live: score and minute only. Key moments, statistics and line-ups come after full time.

Sittard vs Excelsior · Oddvise

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Sittard winmarket 40% · model 41%

Drawmarket 28% · model 25%

Excelsior winmarket 37% · model 34%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

1.61 - 1.47Sittard - Excelsior

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 11%2–1 9%1–2 8%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Sittard goals, columns are Excelsior goals
Sittard ↓ · Excelsior →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	2	<1	<1
1	7	11	8	4	1	<1
2	6	9	6	3	1	<1
3	3	5	3	2

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Sittard and 5 for Excelsior.

Goal markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Nine matches each.

SittardExcelsior

	Sittard	Excelsior
Goals per game	1.8	1.8
Shots on target	4.4	4.0
Big chances	1.2	2.3
Possession	35%	43%
Goals conceded	1.9	2.0
Duels won	50%	47%

Results and defending

Sittard take more points; Excelsior win the ball back more often.

SittardExcelsior

1.67Points per game1.22

-1Goal difference-2

1Clean sheets2

7.4Interceptions per game11.1

Where they stand

Standing and context

Eredivisie after nine matches each.

Metric	Sittard	Excelsior
Position	6th, 15 pts	12th, 11 pts
Record	4W 3D 2L (16:17)	3W 2D 4L (16:18)
Last five	W L W D D	D L D L L
Last match	Sun 18/10, NEC 2-2 Sittard	Fri 16/10, Heerenveen 4-0 Excelsior
Manager	Danny Buijs	Ruben den Uil

Item	Detail
Referee	Ingmar Oostrom: 3.21 yellows, 0.16 reds a match
Venue	Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
Kick-off	Sun 25 Oct, 11:15 Lisbon

Sittard0 – 0Excelsior

Match report

Odds movement

The match

Sittard0 – 0Excelsior

Match report

Odds movement

The match

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Team comparison

Season profile

Results and defending

Where they stand

Standing and context

Head to head, referee and venue

Referee and venue