Argentina · Liga Profesional · 28 Oct 2026, 22:00
Argentinos JrsvsInd. Rivadavia
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 22:42
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 22:48
- Final checkDue about 20:45
Advance: Argentinos Jrs to win at 2.06 (Tipsport); the better defence at home, and Rivadavia miss three players
- Model52%Argentinos win
- Market46%Argentinos win, margin out (Tipsport 2.06)
Why we back Argentinos Jrs
Argentinos Jrs to win at 2.06: the better defence at home, and Rivadavia miss three players. Model: Argentinos 52%, draw 27%, Rivadavia 21%. Market (Tipsport 2.06 / 3.19 / 3.92, margin out): 46%, 30%, 24%. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model: Argentinos 52%, draw 27%, Rivadavia 21%. Market (Tipsport 2.06 / 3.19 / 3.92, margin out): 46%, 30%, 24%.
- 2Pick: Argentinos Jrs to win at 2.06, a gap of 3.6 pp. At bwin's 1.96 the gap is 1.1 pp, so the price matters.
- 3Argentinos concede 0.8 a game against 1.3 for Rivadavia, with 14 clean sheets in 32, and hold 61% of the ball.
- 4Against: they score only 1.2 a game and the draw is 27%; there is no xG for this league.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 26 Oct 2026, 22:01 to 26 Oct 2026, 22:01
We published at 2.06. Latest: 2.06.
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.