Portugal · Liga Portugal · 24 Oct 2026, 20:30

Gil VicentevsFC Porto

Upcoming · kicks off 20:30

Our callNo call: we looked closely and decided against it. Reasons are in the report below.

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 18:37
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:39
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 24 Oct 2026, 18:39

Dropped: Porto are 8 from 8 and no data backs the model's gap on Gil Vicente

Model19.7%Gil Vicente win
Market12.8%Gil Vicente win, margin out

Odds movement

Tipsport 1X2 · 23 Oct 2026, 20:30 to 24 Oct 2026, 19:54

FirstLatestChange

Gil Vicente6.967.39+0.43

Draw4.444.41-0.03

FC Porto1.441.46+0.02

The match

Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.

Gil Vicente vs FC Porto · Oddvise

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Gil Vicente winmarket 13% · model 20%

Drawmarket 22% · model 27%

FC Porto winmarket 69% · model 53%

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely0–1 14%1–1 13%0–2 11%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Gil Vicente goals, columns are FC Porto goals
Gil Vicente ↓ · FC Porto →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	14	11	6	2	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
3	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Gil Vicente and 5 for FC Porto.

Goal markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eight matches each.

Gil VicenteFC Porto

	Gil Vicente	FC Porto
Goals per game	1.0	2.5
Shots on target	3.8	6.4
Big chances	2.1	4.6
Possession	53%	55%
Goals conceded	0.8	0.5
Duels won	47%	47%

Results and defending

Porto take 3.0 points a game, Gil Vicente 1.75.

Gil VicenteFC Porto

1.75Points per game3.00

1.3Big chances missed per game2.8

7.1Interceptions per game7.8

25.4Clearances per game21.8

Where they stand

Standing and context

Liga Portugal, eight matches each.

Metric	Gil Vicente	FC Porto
Position	7th, 14 pts	1st, 24 pts
Record	4W 2D 2L (8:6)	8W (20:4)
Last match	Mon 19/10, Braga 1-2 Gil Vicente	Won, 5 straight league wins
Manager	Luis Pinto	Francesco Farioli
Referee	Luís Godinho	0.30 / 5.29 cards

Gil VicentevsFC Porto

Match report

Odds movement

The match

Gil VicentevsFC Porto

Match report

Odds movement

The match

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Team comparison

Season profile

Results and defending

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

The two XIs compared

Absences

Where they stand

Standing and context