Italy · Serie A · 28 Oct 2026, 19:45

MonzavsNapoli

Upcoming · kicks off 19:45

Our callNo call yet: our analysis is under way.

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisNext
Final checkDue about 18:30

CandidateScreening · 27 Oct 2026, 09:10

Candidate: Monza v Napoli, model reading only; the other markets are to be priced

Home win19.0%Monza, model
Draw23.6%model
Away win57.4%Napoli, model
Expected goals0.97 - 1.85model

1Model: Monza 19.0%, draw 23.6%, Napoli 57.4%.
2No full set of 1X2 prices is stored yet, so no gap can be measured here.
3The detailed analysis prices double chance, goals and both teams to score against the model.

Opportunities

A price in another market than the 1X2 can be longer than the model says.

Risks

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Market and model

What the model expects (1X2)

Model probabilities only. No complete set of stored prices.

Other markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. The prices come with the detailed analysis.

The match

Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.

Monza ↓ · Napoli →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	10	10	6	3	1
1	5	11	10	6	3	1
2	3	5	5	3	1	<1
3	<1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Monza ↓ · Napoli →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	10	10	6	3	1
1	5	11	10	6	3	1
2	3	5	5	3	1	<1
3	<1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Monza ↓ · Napoli →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	10	10	6	3	1
1	5	11	10	6	3	1
2	3	5	5	3	1	<1
3	<1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

What the model expects (1X2)

Other markets according to the model

The match

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

What the model expects (1X2)

Other markets according to the model

The match

Most likely scores

Monza ↓ · Napoli →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	10	10	6	3	1
1	5	11	10	6	3	1
2	3	5	5	3	1	<1
3	<1	2	2	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1