England · Championship · 20 Oct 2026, 19:45
WolvesvsPortsmouth
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 09:11
- Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 10:14
- Final checkNot needed
Dropped: Wolves create more and Portsmouth's long injury list goes against the model's gap
- Market17%Portsmouth, without the margin
- Model23%Portsmouth
- Big chances a game3.0 / 1.8Wolves / Portsmouth, 10 matches
- XI average rating6.7 / 6.7Wolves / Portsmouth, expected starters
- Rest4 / 3 daysWolves / Portsmouth
- Out or doubtful5 / 12Wolves / Portsmouth
- 1
Opportunities
- Wolves lost two of their last three league games, one 1-3 at home to Bolton as 70% favourites.
- Wolves are without Raúl Jiménez (7.22 rating) and Adam Armstrong up front.
Risks
- Portsmouth's 12 absences, two first-choice centre-backs among them, are not in the model's ratings.
- No expected goals for this league: the read rests on shots, chances and ratings.
- Portsmouth's win at Norwich had a 20% chance by the odds: recent results flatter them.
- Line-ups not settled: Wolves' full-backs and Portsmouth's striker are still open.
- The model has not beaten the market in backtests: a gap like this is treated as noise.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Expected goals
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Ten league matches each.
Recent form and level of result
Recent matches
Oldest first. The thin bar under each result is how unlikely it was; 'before' is the chance the odds gave a win, a draw and a defeat.
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
Championship, ten matches each.
| Metric | Wolves | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th, 17 pts | 13th, 14 pts |
| Record | 5W 2D 3L (18:15) | 4W 2D 4L (13:13) |
| Last five (league) | W W L L W | D D L W W |
| Last match | Fri 16/10, Burnley 1-2 Wolves | Sat 17/10, Norwich 0-1 Portsmouth |
| Manager | Cesar Peixoto | John Mousinho |
Head to head, referee and venue
Referee, venue and history
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Referee | Edward Duckworth: 4.36 yellows, 0.19 reds a match |
| Venue | Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton |
| Kick-off | Tue 20 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon |
| This fixture | Postponed twice, on 9 and 16 September |
| Last meeting | May 2010, Premier League |
Screening · 09:11 · Candidate: Portsmouth to win at 5.61, +5.5 pp against the market
- Portsmouth to win: model 23.3% against 17.1% in the market, odds 5.61.
- A gap of 5.5 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
- The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 19 Oct 2026, 19:45 to 20 Oct 2026, 09:39
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.