England · Premier League · 25 Oct 2026, 17:30
SunderlandvsLeeds
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
- Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:54
- Final checkNot needed
Dropped: Sunderland are 20th, concede 2.0 a game and the data favour Leeds despite the model
- Model36.6%Sunderland win
- Market31.7%Sunderland win, margin out
- Points4 / 10Sunderland / Leeds, 7 matches
- Goals conceded2.0 / 0.9Sunderland / Leeds, per game
- Out or doubtful6 / 5Sunderland / Leeds
- 1Model gives Sunderland 36.6%; the market 31.7% (margin out), Tipsport 3.07.
- 2
Opportunities
- Sunderland create 3.0 big chances a game against 2.0 for Leeds.
- Leeds are without Mateo Joseph, and Rodon, James and Calvert-Lewin are doubtful.
Risks
- Sunderland have two red cards this season and Danso is out.
- Leeds concede 0.9 a game against 2.0, with two clean sheets to one.
- Out for Sunderland: Ballard, Mundle, Danso; doubtful: Meunier, Brobbey, Isidor.
- Seven matches each: noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 14%1–0 10%0–1 10%
| Sunderland ↓ · Leeds → | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
Premier League, seven matches each.
| Metric | Sunderland | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 20th, 4 pts | 8th, 10 pts |
| Goals | 6 for, 14 against | 9 for, 6 against |
| Red cards | 2 | 0 |
| Manager | Régis Le Bris | Daniel Farke |
| Referee | Stuart Attwell | 0.14 / 3.52 cards |
Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Sunderland to win at 3.07, +4.0 pp against the market
- Sunderland to win: model 36.6% against 31.7% in the market, odds 3.07.
- A gap of 4.0 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 24 Oct 2026, 18:30 to 24 Oct 2026, 18:30
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.