France · Ligue 1 · 25 Oct 2026, 17:15
AngersvsLorient
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 18:54
- Final checkDue about 16:00
Lorient to win looks worth a final check: the best defence of the two, and the model is above the price
- Model43.3%Lorient win
- Market38.9%Lorient win, margin out
- Goals conceded2.1 / 0.9Angers / Lorient, per game
- Clean sheets2 / 4Angers / Lorient, 7 matches
- Out or doubtful3 / 4Angers / Lorient
- 1Model gives Lorient 43.3%; the market 38.9% (margin out), Tipsport 2.50.
- 2Lorient concede 0.9 a game against 2.1 for Angers, with four clean sheets to two.
Opportunities
- Angers have conceded 15 goals in seven games; Lorient only 6.
- Lorient win more duels (55.9% against 50.1%) and make more interceptions (13.0).
Risks
- Lorient score 1.0 a game and take 3.4 shots on target; goals may be scarce.
- Angers create 2.4 big chances a game against 1.9 for Lorient.
- Doubts: Camara, Belkebla, Biumla (Angers); Mbamba, Fadiga, Bamba (Lorient).
- Seven matches each: noisy. Other markets not yet compared with the model.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 13%0–1 11%0–0 9%
| Angers ↓ · Lorient → | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
Ligue 1, seven matches each.
| Metric | Angers | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 15th, 7 pts | 7th, 11 pts |
| Goals | 9 for, 15 against | 7 for, 6 against |
| Last five league results | L D W L L | W D L W W |
| Manager | Stephane Gilli | Alexandre Dujeux |
| Referee | Azzedine Souifi | 0.17 / 3.85 cards |
Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Lorient to win at 2.50, +3.3 pp against the market
- Lorient to win: model 43.3% against 38.9% in the market, odds 2.50.
- A gap of 3.3 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 24 Oct 2026, 18:15 to 24 Oct 2026, 19:09
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.