Greece · Super League · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00
KalamatavsOFI Crete
Why we back Kalamata
Our model gives Kalamata win a 55.5% chance, against 35.5% implied by Tipsport's odds of 2.82: a gap of 20.0 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model probability for Kalamata win: 55.5%. Probability implied by Tipsport at 2.82: 35.5%.
- 2Model expected goals: Kalamata 2, OFI Crete 1.2.
What could go wrong
- In backtests on about 21,000 real matches this model has not yet shown an edge over the market. A gap this large can mean the model is wrong rather than the market.
- The model uses league ratings only. It does not know lineups, injuries or rest days.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2. First reading 17 Oct 2026, 14:00, latest 18 Oct 2026, 11:48.
Our price when we published was 2.82. At the latest reading Kalamata pays 2.81.
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear here after full time. We read them once, when the match ends, so the page never shows half-finished numbers.
18+ · Gamble responsibly. Tips are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Only bet with licensed operators.