Scotland · Scottish Premiership · 28 Oct 2026, 19:45
St. MirrenvsHibernian
Upcoming · kicks off 19:45
Our callUnder 2.5 goalsTotal goals · bwin
Odds2.20
Stake0.5u
RiskMedium
ConfidenceConfidence 1/5
Market (odds)45.5%
Our model54.8%
Edge+9.3 pp
Fair odds (model)1.83
Published 27 Oct 2026, 09:15 · cannot be edited
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:15
- Final checkDue about 18:30
Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 27 Oct 2026, 09:15
Under 2.5 goals at 2.20: the market expects more goals than the model
- Model54.8%Under 2.5 goals
- Price2.20Under 2.5 goals, bwin
Why we make this call
Under 2.5 goals at 2.20: the market expects more goals than the model. Model: under 2.5 goals 54.8% against 45.5% in the bwin price of 2.20: gap +9.3 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model: under 2.5 goals 54.8% against 45.5% in the bwin price of 2.20: gap +9.3 pp.
- 2The model expects 2.49 goals in total; the market prices over 2.5 at about 57%.
- 3Both sides have attackers out or doubtful, which also leans towards fewer goals.
The evidence
Other markets: model against the odds
Two-way markets without the margin; 1X2 without the margin. The pick's gap uses the raw price.
St. Mirren winmarket 28% · model 34%
Draw
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.