Portugal · Liga Portugal · 23 Oct 2026, 20:45

Vitoria GuimaraesvsMaritimo

Upcoming · kicks off 20:45

Our callNo call: we looked closely and decided against it. Reasons are in the report below.

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 10:15
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 10:21
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 23 Oct 2026, 10:21

Maritimo at 6.14 is a gap the data do not support: Vitoria create more and concede less

Model23%Maritimo to win
Market17%Maritimo to win, margin out

Odds movement

Tipsport 1X2 · 22 Oct 2026, 20:45 to 23 Oct 2026, 13:03

FirstLatestChange

Vitoria Guimaraes1.661.56-0.10

Draw3.794.11+0.32

Maritimo5.536.13+0.60

The match

Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Maritimo · Oddvise

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Vitoria Guimaraes winmarket 63% · model 52%

Drawmarket 25% · model 25%

Maritimo winmarket 17% · model 23%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

1.7 - 1.07Vitoria Guimaraes - Maritimo

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 10%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Vitoria Guimaraes goals, columns are Maritimo goals
Vitoria Guimaraes ↓ · Maritimo →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	6	4	1	<1	<1
1	10	12	6	2	<1	<1
2	9	10	5	2	<1	<1
3	5	5	3	1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 5 for Maritimo.

Goal markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eight games each.

Vitoria GuimaraesMaritimo

	Vitoria Guimaraes	Maritimo
Goals per game	0.6	1.1
Shots on target	4.1	3.3
Big chances	2.8	1.8
Possession	54%	45%
Goals conceded	1.3	1.8
Duels won	48%	48%

Chances and finishing

Vitoria miss most of what they create; Maritimo face more saves.

Vitoria GuimaraesMaritimo

2.4Big chances missed per game1.0

371.9Accurate passes per game292.8

1.8Saves per game3.8

2Clean sheets1

Where they stand

Standing and context

Liga Portugal after eight matches each.

Metric	Vitoria	Maritimo
Position	15th, 5 pts	11th-12th, 8 pts
Record	1W 2D 5L (5:10)	2W 2D 4L (9:14)
Last five	L D L D L	L L L D L
Manager	Tiago Margarido	Mitchell van der Gaag
Referee	Diogo Rosa	6.34 cards a game

Vitoria GuimaraesvsMaritimo

Match report

Odds movement

The match

Vitoria GuimaraesvsMaritimo

Match report

Odds movement

The match

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Team comparison

Season profile

Chances and finishing

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

The two XIs compared

Absences

Where they stand

Standing and context