Italy · Serie A · 28 Oct 2026, 17:30

AC MilanvsBologna

Upcoming · kicks off 17:30

Our callBologna win or drawDouble chance · bwin

Odds2.25

Stake0.5u

RiskMedium

Confidence1/5

Market (odds)44.4%

Our model54.6%

Edge+10.2 pp

Fair odds (model)1.83

Published 27 Oct 2026, 09:15 · cannot be edited

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:15
Final checkDue about 16:15

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 27 Oct 2026, 09:15

Bologna or draw at 2.25: the model rates AC Milan far below the market

Model45% / 55%AC Milan win / Bologna or draw
Price2.25Bologna or draw (X2), bwin

Why we make this call

Bologna or draw at 2.25: the model rates AC Milan far below the market. Model: Bologna or draw 54.6% against 44.4% in the bwin price of 2.25: gap +10.2 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.

1Model: Bologna or draw 54.6% against 44.4% in the bwin price of 2.25: gap +10.2 pp.
2The model gives AC Milan 45%, the market about 58%: that is the whole gap.
3Milan lead on goal difference (+7 against -2) and rating, so the gap is not backed by form.

The evidence

Other markets: model against the odds

Two-way markets without the margin; 1X2 without the margin. The pick's gap uses the raw price.

AC Milan winmarket 58% · model 45%

Draw

The match

Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.

AC Milan ↓ · Bologna →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	5	2	<1	<1
1	11	13	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1

Metric	AC Milan	Bologna
Position	5th, 15 pts	13th, 8 pts
Goals	14:7 in 7	8:10 in 8
Average rating	7.62	7.27
Manager	Rubén Amorim	Raffaele Palladino

AC Milan ↓ · Bologna →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	5	2	<1	<1
1	11	13	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Metric	AC Milan	Bologna
Position	5th, 15 pts	13th, 8 pts
Goals	14:7 in 7	8:10 in 8
Average rating	7.62	7.27
Manager	Rubén Amorim	Raffaele Palladino

AC MilanvsBologna

Match report

Why we make this call

The evidence

Other markets: model against the odds

The match

AC MilanvsBologna

Match report

Why we make this call

The evidence

Other markets: model against the odds

The match

Opportunities

Market and model

Other markets: model against the odds

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Where they stand

Standing and context

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Standing and context

Model

Price

Gap

Expected goals

Standing

Out or doubtful

Expected goals

AC Milan ↓ · Bologna →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	5	2	<1	<1
1	11	13	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

AC Milan ↓ · Bologna →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	5	2	<1	<1
1	11	13	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

AC Milan ↓ · Bologna →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	5	2	<1	<1
1	11	13	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	2	<1	<1	<1
4	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1