Italy · Serie A · 27 Oct 2026, 17:30
SassuolovsLazio
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 19:19
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 19:23
- Final checkDue about 16:15
Advance: Sassuolo draw no bet at 2.50; Lazio's results run well ahead of their play
- Model33%Sassuolo win
- Market29%Sassuolo win, margin out (Tipsport 3.44)
- Points vs xPTS+8.5 / -1.4Lazio / Sassuolo, 8 matches
- Goals against vs xGA5 vs 10.5 xGALazio, 8 matches
- Rest3 / 3 daysSassuolo / Lazio
- Out or doubtful4 / 2Sassuolo / Lazio
- 1
Opportunities
- Lazio's 22 points sit on 13.5 xPTS: a fall back to their xG would hit the 44% the market gives them.
- Draw no bet returns the stake on a draw, which the model puts at 26%.
- Sassuolo's xG for is 1.60 a game against 1.72 for Lazio: the attacks are close.
Risks
- Even on xG Lazio are ahead: 1.72 for and 1.31 against, to 1.60 and 1.92 for Sassuolo.
- Sassuolo are without Idzes and Koné and lost 0-2 and 2-4 in their last two.
- Only the possible XI is out a day ahead; prices on other markets are from bwin, not Tipsport.
- Eight matches each: xG and xPTS gaps are noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is the odds with the bookmaker's margin taken out.
Other markets: model against the odds
Margin taken out. Prices from bwin on the match page, not Tipsport.
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eight matches each.
Underlying quality
Expected goals per game
xG per game this season, eight matches each. Not the model: a plain read.
Points against expectation
Lazio are about 8.5 points ahead of their xPTS; Sassuolo are close to theirs.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
Serie A after eight matches each.
| Metric | Sassuolo | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 14th, 8 pts | 2nd, 22 pts |
| Record | 2W 2D 4L (12:16) | 7W 1D (16:5) |
| Last five (oldest first) | W L D L L | D W W W W |
| Last match | Sat 24/10, Como 2-0 Sassuolo | Sat 24/10, Lazio 2-1 Parma |
| Manager | Alberto Aquilani | Gennaro Gattuso |
Head to head, referee and venue
Recent meetings
Lazio lead the series 5 wins to 3 with 2 draws; the last three Serie A meetings were level or close.
- 09/03/2026Lazio 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
- 14/09/2025Sassuolo 1-0 LazioSerie A
- 26/05/2024Lazio 1-1 SassuoloSerie A
Venue
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Venue | Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia (21,584) |
| Kick-off | Tue 27 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon |
Screening · 19:19 · Candidate: Sassuolo to win at 3.44, +3.6 pp against the market
- Sassuolo to win: model 32.6% against 28.7% in the market, odds 3.44.
- A gap of 3.6 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
- The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 26 Oct 2026, 17:31 to 26 Oct 2026, 17:31
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.