France · Ligue 1 · 17 Oct 2026, 19:45
TroyesvsLens
Upcoming · kicks off 19:45
Our callLens to winMatch result · Tipsport
Odds1.90
Stake0.5u
RiskMedium
ConfidenceConfidence 1/5
Market (odds)52.6%
Our model59.7%
Edge+7.0 pp
Fair odds (model)1.68
Published 17 Oct 2026, 14:36 · cannot be edited · model poisson-dc-2
Why we back Lens
Our model gives Lens win a 59.7% chance, against 52.6% implied by Tipsport's odds of 1.90: a gap of 7.0 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model probability for Lens win: 59.7%. Probability implied by Tipsport at 1.90: 52.6%.
- 2Model expected goals: Troyes 0.99, Lens 1.97.
What could go wrong
- In backtests on about 21,000 real matches this model has not yet shown an edge over the market. A gap this large can mean the model is wrong rather than the market.
- The model uses league ratings only. It does not know lineups, injuries or rest days.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Troyes winmarket 25% · model 18%
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2. First reading 16 Oct 2026, 19:45, latest 17 Oct 2026, 14:21.
FirstLatestChange
Troyes4.034.07+0.04
Draw4.153.88-0.27
Lens1.851.90+0.05
Our price when we published was 1.90. At the latest reading Lens pays 1.90.
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear here after full time. We read them once, when the match ends, so the page never shows half-finished numbers.
18+ · Gamble responsibly. Tips are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Only bet with licensed operators.