Italy · Serie A · 27 Oct 2026, 19:45
AS RomavsCagliari
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 22:42
- Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 22:48
- Final checkNot needed
Dropped: the model's gaps against Roma are its own blind spot; the data back Roma
- Model60%Roma win
- Market71%Roma win, margin out (Tipsport 1.38)
- xG difference+9.7 / -5.5Roma / Cagliari, 8 matches
- Points vs xPTS+1.9 / +4.8Roma / Cagliari
- Rest3 / 3 daysRoma / Cagliari
- Out or doubtful3 / 2Roma / Cagliari
- 1Model: Roma 60%, draw 24%, Cagliari 17%. Market (Tipsport 1.38 / 5.28 / 9.75, margin out): 71%, 19%, 10%.
Opportunities
- If Roma's defence cools (6 conceded against 10.9 xGA), the draw at 5.28 gains.
- Roma's attack wastes 2.1 big chances a game: goals could come in fewer than the xG says.
Risks
- Roma's 6 goals conceded are 4.9 below their xGA of 10.9: the defence is running hot.
- Svilar, Pellegrini and Koné are out for Roma; only the possible XI is known a day ahead.
- Eight matches each: xG and xPTS gaps are noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Other markets: model against the odds
Margin taken out. Prices from bwin on the match page, not Tipsport.
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eight matches each.
Underlying quality
Expected goals per game
xG per game this season, eight matches each. Not the model: a plain read.
Points against expectation
Cagliari are well above their xPTS; Roma are not.
Expected line-ups and absences
Absences
Roma are without their goalkeeper Svilar.
- OutMile SvilarGoalkeeper· high impactBroken finger.
- OutLorenzo PellegriniMidfielder· medium impactThigh.
- OutManu KonéMidfielder· medium impactThigh.
- OutHarry WinksMidfielder· medium impactMuscle.
- OutMattia FeliciMidfielder· low impactCruciate ligament.
Where they stand
Standing and context
Serie A after eight matches each.
| Metric | Roma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd, 18 pts | 9th, 13 pts |
| Record | 5W 3D (19:6) | 4W 1D 3L (6:9) |
| Last five (oldest first) | W D D W D | W W D L L |
| Manager | Gian Piero Gasperini | Fabio Pisacane |
| Kick-off | Tue 27 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon | Stadio Olimpico, Rome |
Screening · 22:42 · Candidate: AS Roma v Cagliari, model reading only; the other markets are to be priced
- Model: AS Roma 60.9%, draw 23.2%, Cagliari 16.0%.
- The only 1X2 gap is on a long shot: the other markets are still to be priced.
- The detailed analysis prices double chance, goals and both teams to score against the model.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 26 Oct 2026, 19:47 to 26 Oct 2026, 19:47
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.