Italy · Serie A · 19 Oct 2026, 19:45

Parma0 – 0Torino

Live · 5'

Our callNo call: we looked closely and decided against it. Reasons are in the report below.

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 14:25
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 14:33
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 19 Oct 2026, 14:33

Drop: Parma have the weakest underlying numbers of the pair, so the gap goes against the data

Market30%Parma win, margin in
Model34.5%Parma win

Odds movement

Tipsport 1X2 · 18 Oct 2026, 19:48 to 19 Oct 2026, 19:33

FirstLatestChange

Parma3.313.56+0.25

Draw3.053.12+0.07

Torino2.412.34-0.07

The match

Live: score and minute only. Key moments, statistics and line-ups come after full time.

Parma vs Torino · Oddvise

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Parma winmarket 30% · model 35%

Drawmarket 32% · model 30%

Torino winmarket 40% · model 36%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

1.13 - 1.16Parma - Torino

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 14%0–1 11%0–0 11%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Parma goals, columns are Torino goals
Parma ↓ · Torino →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	11	7	3	<1	<1
1	11	14	8	3	<1	<1
2	6	8	4	2	<1	<1
3	2	3	2	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Parma and 5 for Torino.

Goal markets according to the model

Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Six matches each.

ParmaTorino

	Parma	Torino
Goals per game	0.7	1.2
Shots on target	2.7	3.2
Big chances	1.3	2.5
Possession	43%	51%
Goals conceded	1.7	1.5
Duels won	47%	53%

Efficiency and defending

Torino create and miss more; Parma face more shots on target.

ParmaTorino

1.0Big chances missed per game1.8

0Clean sheets0

4.2Saves per game2.3

9.5Interceptions per game6.5

Where they stand

Standing and context

Serie A after six matches each.

Metric	Parma	Torino
Record	1W 1D 4L (4:10)	2W 1D 3L (7:9)
Points	4	7
Last match	Sat 10/10, Inter 3-0 Parma	Mon 12/10, Torino 2-1 Udinese
Referee	Giovanni Ayroldi: 5.5 yellows a match
Venue	Ennio Tardini, Parma (27,906)
Kick-off	Mon 19 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Parma0 – 0Torino

Match report

Odds movement

The match

Parma0 – 0Torino

Match report

Odds movement

The match

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Team comparison

Season profile

Efficiency and defending

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

Points against expectation

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

The two XIs compared

Absences

Where they stand

Standing and context