Spain · LaLiga · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15
Celta VigovsBetis
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
- Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:54
- Final checkNot needed
Dropped: Celta win with a strong defence but half the shots on target of Betis, and five players out
- Model41.8%Celta win
- Market29.8%Celta win, margin out
- Shots on target3.2 / 6.3Celta / Betis, per game
- Goals conceded0.8 / 1.6Celta / Betis, per game
- Out5 / 3Celta / Betis
- 1Model gives Celta 41.8%; the market 29.8% (margin out), Tipsport 3.22.
- 2Celta concede 0.8 a game (Betis 1.6) but score 1.1 and have 3.2 shots on target.
Opportunities
- Celta have four clean sheets and concede 0.8 a game: the best defence of the two.
- Betis concede 1.6 a game and are missing Cucho Hernández and Firpo.
Risks
- Celta score 1.1 a game and have won their points on small margins.
- Out for Celta: Iglesias, Starfelt, Román, Núñez, El Abdellaoui.
- Betis win more duels (54.6% against 49.3%) and make more tackles.
- Nine matches each: noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 12%2–1 9%1–0 8%
| Celta Vigo ↓ · Betis → | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Nine matches each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
LaLiga, nine matches each.
| Metric | Celta Vigo | Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th, 11 pts | 4th, 19 pts |
| Goals | 10 for, 7 against | 16 for, 14 against |
| Last five league results | D D W D W | W W D W L |
| Manager | Claudio Giráldez | Manuel Pellegrini |
| Red cards | 1 | 1 |
Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Celta Vigo to win at 3.22, +10.8 pp against the market
- Celta Vigo to win: model 41.8% against 30.2% in the market, odds 3.22.
- A gap of 10.8 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 to 24 Oct 2026, 19:36
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.