England · Premier League · 25 Oct 2026, 15:00
Crystal PalacevsNewcastle
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 18:54
- Final checkDue about 13:45
Palace to win looks worth a final check: more big chances, Newcastle miss Elanga, but a leaky defence
- Model38.9%Palace win
- Market33.3%Palace win, margin out
- Big chances3.1 / 1.7Palace / Newcastle, per game
- Goals conceded2.4 / 2.0Palace / Newcastle, per game
- Out or doubtful5 / 4Palace / Newcastle
- 1Model gives Palace 38.9%; the market 33.3% (margin out), Tipsport 2.92.
- 2Palace create 3.1 big chances a game against 1.7; shots on target are level.
Opportunities
- Newcastle are without Elanga, Ramsey and Livramento: three regulars out.
- Palace make 20.7 tackles a game against 13.6, and Newcastle have conceded two penalties.
Risks
- Palace have conceded 17 in 7 (2.4 a game) and won two of the last five.
- Palace miss 2.3 big chances a game: creation is not turning into goals.
- Strand Larsen and Timber are doubtful; both XIs are predicted.
- Seven matches each: noisy. Other markets not yet compared with the model.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 12%2–1 9%1–2 8%
| Crystal Palace ↓ · Newcastle → | 0 |
|---|
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
Premier League, seven matches each.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16th, 7 pts | 13th, 8 pts |
| Goals | 9 for, 17 against | 10 for, 14 against |
| Last five league results | W L D W L | D L W L L |
| Manager | Pierre Sage | Matthias Jaissle |
| Referee | Paul Tierney | 0.12 / 3.26 cards |
Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Crystal Palace to win at 2.92, +4.7 pp against the market
- Crystal Palace to win: model 38.9% against 33.3% in the market, odds 2.92.
- A gap of 4.7 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 to 24 Oct 2026, 18:06
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.