France · Ligue 1 · 25 Oct 2026, 17:15
AuxerrevsLe Mans
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 18:52
- Final checkDue about 16:00
Le Mans to win looks worth a final check: the sides are level on chances, Auxerre have seven out
- Model37.1%Le Mans win
- Market27.5%Le Mans win, margin out
- Big chances2.4 / 2.6Auxerre / Le Mans, per game
- Goals conceded2.4 / 2.1Auxerre / Le Mans, per game
- Out or doubtful7 / 4Auxerre / Le Mans
- 1Model gives Le Mans 37.1%; the market 27.5% (margin out), Tipsport 3.53.
- 2Big chances are level (2.4 v 2.6) and Le Mans concede fewer (2.1 v 2.4 a game).
Opportunities
- Auxerre are without Dioussé, Okoh, Senaya, Siwe, Labeau Lascary, Fofana and Mandengue.
- Auxerre concede 2.4 a game and have kept one clean sheet in seven.
Risks
- Le Mans have 6 points to 9, no clean sheet and have conceded 15 in 7.
- Auxerre take 5.1 shots on target a game against 4.0 for Le Mans.
- Le Mans doubts: Voyer, Colas, Rossignol; both XIs are predicted.
- Seven matches each: noisy. Other markets not yet compared with the model.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 11%2–1 8%1–2 8%
| Auxerre ↓ · Le Mans → | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
Ligue 1, seven matches each.
| Metric | Auxerre | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th, 9 pts | 16th, 6 pts |
| Goals | 11 for, 17 against | 10 for, 15 against |
| Last five | L W W L W | D D W L L |
| Manager | Will Still | Patrick Videira |
| Referee | Willy Delajod | 0.26 / 3.82 cards |
Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Le Mans to win at 3.53, +8.8 pp against the market
- Le Mans to win: model 37.1% against 27.5% in the market, odds 3.53.
- A gap of 8.8 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 24 Oct 2026, 18:15 to 24 Oct 2026, 18:36
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.