France · Ligue 1 · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00
AngersvsMarseille
Why we back Marseille
Our model gives Marseille win a 56.4% chance, against 50.8% implied by Tipsport's odds of 1.97: a gap of 5.6 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model probability for Marseille win: 56.4%. Probability implied by Tipsport at 1.97: 50.8%.
- 2Model expected goals: Angers 1.06, Marseille 1.89.
What could go wrong
- In backtests on about 21,000 real matches this model has not yet shown an edge over the market. A gap this large can mean the model is wrong rather than the market.
- The model uses league ratings only. It does not know lineups, injuries or rest days.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2. First reading 17 Oct 2026, 14:00, latest 18 Oct 2026, 12:12.
Our price when we published was 1.97. At the latest reading Marseille pays 1.98.
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear here after full time. We read them once, when the match ends, so the page never shows half-finished numbers.
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