England · Championship · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00
Derby
0 – 1
Stoke
Live
Our callDerby to winMatch result · Tipsport
Odds2.96
Stake0.5u
RiskMedium
ConfidenceConfidence 1/5
Market (odds)33.8%
Our model42.7%
Edge+8.9 pp
Fair odds (model)2.34
Published 17 Oct 2026, 14:36 · cannot be edited · model poisson-dc-2
Why we back Derby
Our model gives Derby win a 42.7% chance, against 33.8% implied by Tipsport's odds of 2.96: a gap of 8.9 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model probability for Derby win: 42.7%. Probability implied by Tipsport at 2.96: 33.8%.
- 2Model expected goals: Derby 1.4, Stoke 1.12.
What could go wrong
- In backtests on about 21,000 real matches this model has not yet shown an edge over the market. A gap this large can mean the model is wrong rather than the market.
- The model uses league ratings only. It does not know lineups, injuries or rest days.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Derby winmarket 34% · model 43%
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2. First reading 16 Oct 2026, 15:00, latest 17 Oct 2026, 14:45.
FirstLatestChange
Derby2.942.96+0.02
Draw3.443.32-0.12
Stoke2.412.46+0.05
Our price when we published was 2.96. At the latest reading Derby pays 2.96.
The match
The match is on. During play we only update the score; key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.
18+ · Gamble responsibly. Tips are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Only bet with licensed operators.