England · Premier League · 23 Oct 2026, 20:00
IpswichvsNottingham
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 10:15
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 10:18
- Final checkDue about 18:45
Forest to win looks worth a small look: the model is above the price and the numbers back it
- Model46%Forest to win
- Market41%Forest to win, margin out (bwin 1X2)
- Big chances a game3.0 / 2.1Forest / Ipswich
- Goals a game0.7 / 1.6Forest / Ipswich
- Goals conceded1.3 / 2.1Forest / Ipswich
- Out or doubtful3 / 1Forest / Ipswich
- 1Model: Forest 45.9% against 41-43% in the market; Tipsport pays 2.35.
Opportunities
- Forest miss 2.4 big chances a game; Ipswich concede 2.1 a game.
- Forest average over 19 shots away, the most in the league.
- Gibbs-White expected back for Forest; Igor Jesus and Savona still out.
Risks
- Forest have scored 5 goals in 7 games and are on three straight defeats.
- Ipswich are at home and scored 11 in 7; they took two goals at Man City.
- Doubtful: Gibbs-White (Forest), Lukic (Ipswich); the XI is predicted.
- Seven games each: all the season numbers are noisy.
- The model has not beaten the market in backtests; a 3 pp gap is small.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Expected goals
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven games each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
Premier League after seven matches each.
| Metric | Ipswich | Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th, 9 pts | 19th, 5 pts |
| Record | 3W 0D 4L (11:15) | 1W 2D 4L (5:9) |
| Last five | L W L W L | D W L L L |
| Last match | Sat 17/10, Man City 3-2 Ipswich | Arsenal defeat |
| Manager | Gary O'Neil | Oliver Glasner |
Screening · 10:15 · Candidate: Nottingham to win at 2.35, +3.3 pp against the market
- Nottingham to win: model 45.9% against 41.4% in the market, odds 2.35.
- A gap of 3.3 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 22 Oct 2026, 20:00 to 23 Oct 2026, 12:21
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.