Spain · LaLiga · 19 Oct 2026, 20:00
GetafevsRayo Vallecano
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 14:25
- Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 14:37
- Final checkNot needed
Drop: a 2.9 pp gap on a side with the weaker attack, and the data lean to Rayo
- Market32%Getafe win, margin in
- Model34.9%Getafe win
- xG per game0.80 / 1.30Getafe / Rayo
- Points vs xPTS+1.2 / +0.3Getafe / Rayo
- Goals against vs xGA10 / 16conceded: Getafe 13.7 / Rayo 13.0 expected
- Out or doubtful6 / 2Getafe / Rayo
- 1Model: Getafe 34.9% against 31.9% from the price (3.13 at Tipsport, margin in): a gap of 2.9 pp.
Opportunities
- Rayo have lost their first-choice goalkeeper (Batalla, fractured tibia) and Rațiu is doubtful.
Risks
- Seven and eight matches played: xG and xPTS gaps are noisy.
- Getafe have six out or doubtful, including Ünal, Mangala, Azón and Romero.
- Getafe scored 4 goals in eight matches and have 37% of the ball.
- The model gives Getafe under 35%: high risk, and it has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Expected goals
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eight and seven matches.
Underlying quality
Expected goals per game
xG per game this season: Getafe eight matches, Rayo seven.
Points against expectation
Getafe are slightly ahead of their xG; Rayo are level.
Recent form and level of result
Last ten matches
Oldest first. The thin bar under each result is how unlikely it was given the odds.
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
- D
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
LaLiga: Getafe eight matches, Rayo seven.
| Metric | Getafe | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2W 2D 4L (4:10) | 2W 2D 3L (11:16) |
| Points | 8 | 8 |
| Last match | Thu 15/10, Craiova 1-1 Getafe | - |
| Referee | Jon Ander González Esteban: 4.5 yellows a match | |
| Venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Getafe | |
| Kick-off | Mon 19 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon |
Screening · 14:25 · Candidate: Getafe to win at 3.13, +2.9 pp against the market
- Getafe to win: model 34.9% against 31.1% in the market, odds 3.13.
- A gap of 2.9 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
- The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 18 Oct 2026, 20:00 to 19 Oct 2026, 19:45
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.