England · Championship · 23 Oct 2026, 20:00
1 – 5
MiddlesbroughWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
Did not start: Ito, Iling-Junior, Dalby. Started, not expected: Bair T., Dong K., Rodrigues R..
The expected line-up was right.
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
Bolton at 4.77 is a gap the data do not back: Middlesbrough are better on every attacking number
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eleven games each.
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Championship after eleven matches each.
| Metric | Bolton | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 15th | 3rd |
| Goals | 15 for, 18 against | 22 for, 16 against |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Manager | Steven Schumacher | Kim Hellberg |
| Venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium (home) | Away |
Tipsport 1X2 · 22 Oct 2026, 20:00 to 23 Oct 2026, 20:00
| Bolton ↓ · Middlesbrough → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | <1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | <1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | <1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 4 | <1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Bolton and 5 for Middlesbrough.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Middlesbrough pass far more accurately; Bolton clear and intercept more.
Average rating this season:7.2 and over6.8 to 7.26.5 to 6.8under 6.5
Only the players expected to start.
The bar is the player's average rating this season.