Portugal · Liga Portugal · 19 Oct 2026, 20:15
BragavsGil Vicente
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 14:25
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 14:39
- Final checkDue about 19:00
Advance: equal records and a tighter defence back the model gap on Gil Vicente, no xG to confirm
- Market16%Gil Vicente win, margin in
- Model22.2%Gil Vicente win
- Points11 / 11Braga / Gil Vicente, 7 matches
- Goals against8 / 5Braga / Gil Vicente
- Big chances2.9 / 2.0per game, Braga / Gil Vicente
- Out or doubtful1 / 2Braga / Gil Vicente
- 1Model: Gil Vicente 22.2% against 16.0% from the price (6.24 at Tipsport, margin in): a gap of 6.2 pp.
Opportunities
- Same record (3W 2D 2L), but Gil Vicente have conceded 5 goals and Braga 8.
- Braga come off two defeats, the last on Thursday in Europe, with four days of rest.
- Gil Vicente have not lost in their last two and won 1-0 at Moreirense on 9 October.
Risks
- No xG data for this league: the read rests on goals and shot counts from seven matches.
- Braga create more (4.3 shots on target, 2.9 big chances a game) and hold 58% of the ball.
- At 6.24 Gil Vicente win about one match in five even on the model: most bets lose.
- The model gives Gil Vicente under 35%: high risk, and it has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Expected goals
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.
Recent form and level of result
Last ten matches
Oldest first. The thin bar under each result is how unlikely it was given the odds.
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
Liga Portugal after seven matches each.
| Metric | Braga | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3W 2D 2L (8:8) | 3W 2D 2L (6:5) |
| Points | 11 | 11 |
| Last match | Thu 15/10, København 3-0 Braga | Fri 09/10, Moreirense 0-1 Gil Vicente (latest league match) |
| Manager | Carlos Vicens | |
| Referee | Fábio Veríssimo: 5.8 yellows a match | |
| Venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga | |
| Kick-off | Mon 19 Oct, 20:15 Lisbon |
Screening · 14:25 · Candidate: Gil Vicente to win at 6.24, +6.2 pp against the market
- Gil Vicente to win: model 22.2% against 15.3% in the market, odds 6.24.
- A gap of 6.2 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
- The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 18 Oct 2026, 20:18 to 19 Oct 2026, 19:45
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.