England · Premier League · 25 Oct 2026, 15:00
HullvsBrentford
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
- Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:54
- Final checkNot needed
Dropped: a 20 pp gap on Hull is a model blind spot, Brentford are better on every attacking number
- Model41.9%Hull win
- Market21.0%Hull win, margin out
- Goals per game1.1 / 1.9Hull / Brentford
- Big chances1.7 / 3.1Hull / Brentford, per game
- Out or doubtful10 / 5Hull / Brentford
- 1Model gives Hull 41.9%; the market 21.0% (margin out), Tipsport 4.63.
- 2Brentford score 1.9 a game against 1.1 and create 3.1 big chances against 1.7.
Opportunities
- Brentford miss Janelt and Yarmoliuk (suspended) and Milambo (injured): midfield is thin.
- Brentford have two red cards this season and 14.7 fouls a game.
Risks
- Hull: Gyabi, Matazo, Hughes, Ansah, Butland, Targett and Mendy out; three more doubtful.
- Hull manage 3.4 shots on target a game; Brentford 4.1.
- A 20 pp gap is more often a blind spot than value.
- Seven matches each: noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely1–1 12%2–1 9%1–0 9%
| Hull ↓ · Brentford → | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
Premier League, seven matches each.
| Metric | Hull | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 for, 7 against | 13 for, 8 against |
| Position | 11th, 9 pts | 7th, 10 pts |
| Manager | Sergej Jakirović | Keith Andrews |
| Referee | Robert Jones | 0.10 / 3.60 cards |
| Possession | 31.3% | 44.7% |
Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Hull to win at 4.63, +20.4 pp against the market
- Hull to win: model 41.9% against 21.0% in the market, odds 4.63.
- A gap of 20.4 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
- A gap of 20.4 pp is more often a blind spot of the model than value: check what it cannot see.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 to 24 Oct 2026, 19:36
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.