Netherlands · Eredivisie · 25 Oct 2026, 14:30
PSVvsFeyenoord
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
- Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:54
- Final checkNot needed
Dropped: a 2 pp gap on PSV, and Feyenoord lead on attack and the XI
- Model50.1%PSV win
- Market46.1%PSV win, margin out
- Goals per game3.0 / 3.4PSV / Feyenoord
- Points19 / 23PSV / Feyenoord, 9 matches
- Out7 / 4PSV / Feyenoord
- 1Model gives PSV 50.1%; the market 46.1% (margin out), Tipsport 2.08.
- 2Feyenoord lead on goals (3.4 v 3.0 a game), big chances (4.9 v 3.9) and points.
Opportunities
- PSV are unbeaten at home: three wins and a draw.
- Feyenoord have four absences too, among them Bos and Nieuwkoop.
Risks
- PSV: Pléa, Pepi, Lammers, Wanner, Schouten and van Bommel are out.
- Feyenoord: 31 goals in 9 matches, 1st with 23 points against 19.
- Mijnans (red card) may be suspended; the PSV XI is open.
- Nine matches each: noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Most likely scores
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely2–1 9%1–1 8%2–2 7%
| PSV ↓ · Feyenoord → | 0 | 1 |
|---|
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Nine matches each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Where they stand
Standing and context
Eredivisie after nine matches each.
| Metric | PSV | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd, 19 pts | 1st, 23 pts |
| Goals | 27 for, 12 against | 31 for, 10 against |
| Home record | 3W 1D at home | - |
| Manager | Peter Bosz | Giovanni van Bronckhorst |
| Referee | Serdar Gozubuyuk | 0.17 / 3.60 cards |
Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: PSV to win at 2.08, +2.0 pp against the market
- PSV to win: model 50.1% against 46.1% in the market, odds 2.08.
- A gap of 2.0 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
- League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
- In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 24 Oct 2026, 15:30 to 24 Oct 2026, 17:06
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.