Spain · LaLiga · 18 Oct 2026, 15:15
Celta VigovsAlaves
Why we back Celta Vigo
Our model gives Celta Vigo win a 47.0% chance, against 43.3% implied by Tipsport's odds of 2.31: a gap of 3.8 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model probability for Celta Vigo win: 47.0%. Probability implied by Tipsport at 2.31: 43.3%.
- 2Model expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.48, Alaves 1.02.
What could go wrong
- In backtests on about 21,000 real matches this model has not yet shown an edge over the market. A gap this large can mean the model is wrong rather than the market.
- The model uses league ratings only. It does not know lineups, injuries or rest days.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2. First reading 17 Oct 2026, 15:15, latest 18 Oct 2026, 12:03.
Our price when we published was 2.31. At the latest reading Celta Vigo pays 2.32.
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear here after full time. We read them once, when the match ends, so the page never shows half-finished numbers.
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