France · Ligue 1 · 30 Oct 2026, 18:00
Le Havre vs PSG
Upcoming · kicks off 18:00
Our callUnder 2.5 goalsTotal goals · Betano
Odds2.80
Stake0.5u
RiskMedium
ConfidenceConfidence 1/5
Market (odds)35.7%
Our model40.3%
Edge+4.6 pp
Fair odds (model)2.48
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:19
- Final checkDue about 16:45
Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 29 Oct 2026, 09:19
Under 2.5 goals at 2.80: PSG are missing five players and the model puts under at 40%
- Model15 / 21 / 64 %Le Havre / draw / PSG
- Market10 / 15 / 75 %Betano, margin out
Why we make this call
Under 2.5 goals at 2.80: PSG are missing five players and the model puts under at 40%. Model: under 2.5 goals 40.3% against 35.7% in the Betano price (2.80): +4.5 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model: under 2.5 goals 40.3% against 35.7% in the Betano price (2.80): +4.5 pp.
- 2Model expects 0.96 - 2.13 goals; Betano has PSG at 1.24 and over 2.5 at 1.29.
- 3PSG are without Dembele, Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes and Pembele.
- 4Le Havre are 18th with two points and have scored 8 in eight matches.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is the Betano price with the margin taken out.
Le Havre winmarket 10% · model 15%
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.