What we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Post-match review26 Oct 2026, 15:57
Celta Vigo and Betis drew 0-0 in a low-chance match
1Result 0-0. Expected goals 0.84 to 1.08 for Betis; shots 12 to 15, on target 4 to 2.
Model gave Celta 42%, a draw 26% and Betis about 32%, with 1.55 to 1.33 expected goals.
3Dropped before the match with five Celta players out; Celta did not win at 3.22.
What we learn
Total expected goals of 1.9 against 2.9 in the model: the model overrates scoring in this match-up.
The drop stands: the 11 pp gap had no concrete support and the match produced few chances.
What we expected against what happened
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
Celta VigoBetis
1.55Goals the model expected1.33
0.84Expected goals in the match (xG)1.08
0Goals scored0
Celta Vigo: expected line-up
Did not start: Burcio, Carreira, Swedberg, Jutglà. Started, not expected: Alvarez H., Febas A., Gonzalez H., Rueda J..
7/11expected starters who started
Betis: expected line-up
Did not start: García, Bellerín, Fornals, Parrott. Started, not expected: Ceballos D., Deossa N., Gomez V., Ortiz A..
7/11expected starters who started
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
✓ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
✓Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:54
3Final checkNot needed
Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 24 Oct 2026, 18:54
Dropped: Celta win with a strong defence but half the shots on target of Betis, and five players out
Model41.8%Celta win
Market29.8%Celta win, margin out
Shots on target3.2 / 6.3Celta / Betis, per game
Goals conceded0.8 / 1.6Celta / Betis, per game
Out5 / 3Celta / Betis
1Model gives Celta 41.8%; the market 29.8% (margin out), Tipsport 3.22.
2Celta concede 0.8 a game (Betis 1.6) but score 1.1 and have 3.2 shots on target.
3Betis have 6.3 shots on target and 2.7 big chances a game against 1.6.
4Celta lose Iglesias and four more: no concrete case at 3.22: dropped.
Opportunities
Celta have four clean sheets and concede 0.8 a game: the best defence of the two.
Betis concede 1.6 a game and are missing Cucho Hernández and Firpo.
Risks
Celta score 1.1 a game and have won their points on small margins.
Out for Celta: Iglesias, Starfelt, Román, Núñez, El Abdellaoui.
Betis win more duels (54.6% against 49.3%) and make more tackles.
Nine matches each: noisy. The model has not beaten the market in backtests.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Celta Vigo winmarket 31% · model 42%
Drawmarket 28% · model 26%
Betis winmarket 43% · model 32%
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Nine matches each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Celta Vigo3-4-2-1 · avg rating 6.57
6.5Jutglà
6.3Swedberg
6.5
Where they stand
Standing and context
LaLiga, nine matches each.
Metric
Celta Vigo
Betis
Position
8th, 11 pts
4th, 19 pts
Goals
10 for, 7 against
16 for, 14 against
Last five league results
D D W D W
W W D W L
Manager
Claudio Giráldez
Manuel Pellegrini
Red cards
1
1
Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Celta Vigo to win at 3.22, +10.8 pp against the market
Celta Vigo to win: model 41.8% against 30.2% in the market, odds 3.22.
A gap of 10.8 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 24 Oct 2026, 17:15 to 25 Oct 2026, 15:18
0 – 0 
Betis