England · Championship · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00
0 – 1 
StokeWhat we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
Our model gives Derby win a 42.7% chance, against 33.8% implied by Tipsport's odds of 2.96: a gap of 8.9 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Tipsport 1X2 · 16 Oct 2026, 15:00 to 17 Oct 2026, 14:45
We published at 2.96. Latest: 2.96.
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