Portugal · Liga Portugal · 24 Oct 2026, 20:30

Gil Vicente 0 – 1 FC Porto

Finished1st Half 0–0 · 2nd Half 0–1

Our reportDropped: Porto are 8 from 8 and no data backs the model's gap on Gil VicenteRead it →

Key moments

Gil VicenteFC Porto

64'⚽Sainz B.
Elimbi M.🟥84'

All events

Gil Vicente

Gil Vicente vs FC Porto prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 18:37
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 18:39
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 24 Oct 2026, 18:39

Dropped: Porto are 8 from 8 and no data backs the model's gap on Gil Vicente

Model19.7%Gil Vicente win
Market12.8%Gil Vicente win, margin out
League points14 / 24Gil Vicente / Porto, 8 matches
Goals per game1.0 / 2.5Gil Vicente / Porto
Out2 / 2Gil Vicente / Porto

1Model gives Gil Vicente 19.7%, the market 12.8% (margin out), price 7.33.
2Porto have won all 8 league games (20:4); Gil Vicente have 14 points and 8:6 goals.
3Porto lead on shots on target (6.4 v 3.8) and big chances (4.6 v 2.1) per game.
4No data backs the gap: the model has not beaten the market in backtests. Dropped.

Opportunities

Gil Vicente have won two straight, including 2-1 away at Braga on 19 Oct.
At 1.0 goals for and 0.8 against per game, Gil Vicente games are tight.

Risks

Porto: 8 wins, 20 goals scored, 4 conceded; Gil Vicente must win outright at 7.33.
Porto big chances: 4.6 per game against 2.1 for Gil Vicente.
Attack open: França or Kaba for Gil Vicente; Moura or Souza at right back for Porto.
Not read: other markets and head to head; eight matches each is a small sample.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Gil Vicente winmarket 13% · model 20%

Drawmarket 22% · model 27%

FC Porto winmarket 69% · model 53%

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eight matches each.

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Gil Vicente4-2-3-1 · avg rating 6.68

7.1França

6.7Murilo

6.7

Where they stand

Standing and context

Liga Portugal, eight matches each.

Metric	Gil Vicente	FC Porto
Position	7th, 14 pts	1st, 24 pts
Record	4W 2D 2L (8:6)	8W (20:4)
Last match	Mon 19/10, Braga 1-2 Gil Vicente	Won, 5 straight league wins
Manager	Luis Pinto	Francesco Farioli
Referee	Luís Godinho	0.30 / 5.29 cards

Screening · 18:37 · Candidate: Gil Vicente to win at 7.33, +6.1 pp against the market

Gil Vicente to win: model 19.7% against 13.1% in the market, odds 7.33.
A gap of 6.1 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	14	11	6	2	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
3	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	14	11	6	2	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
3	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Gil Vicente	FC Porto
Goals per game	1.0	2.5
Shots on target	3.8	6.4
Big chances	2.1	4.6
Possession	53%	55%
Goals conceded	0.8	0.5
Duels won	47%	47%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	14	11	6	2	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
3	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

After the match

More matches on Saturday, 24 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Saturday, 24 Oct 2026

1st Half0–0

2nd Half0–1

Line-ups

Gil Vicente

Starting line-up

FC Porto

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Gil Vicente: expected line-up

FC Porto: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Team comparison

Season profile

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Results and defending

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	14	11	6	2	<1
1	7	13	9	5	2	<1
2	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
3	<1	1	<1	<1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1