Heerenveen 4 – 0 Excelsior

Our model gives Excelsior win a 29.0% chance, against 19.7% implied by Tipsport's odds of 5.08: a gap of 9.3 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.

1. 1Model probability for Excelsior win: 29.0%. Probability implied by Tipsport at 5.08: 19.7%.
2. 2Model expected goals: Heerenveen 1.76, Excelsior 1.35.