Germany · 2. Bundesliga · 1 Nov 2026, 12:30
Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel
Upcoming · kicks off 12:30
Our callUnder 2.5 goalsTotal goals · bwin
Odds2.35
Stake0.5u
RiskMedium
ConfidenceConfidence 1/5
Market (odds)42.5%
Our model47.1%
Edge+4.6 pp
Fair odds (model)2.12
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:17
- Final checkDue about 11:15
Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 31 Oct 2026, 09:17
Under 2.5 goals: the model sees fewer goals than the price allows
- Model47.1%Under 2.5 goals
Why we make this call
Greuther Furth v Holstein Kiel: under 2.5 goals at 2.35. Model: under 2.5 goals 47.1%. The 2.35 price implies 42.6%: gap +4.6 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model: under 2.5 goals 47.1%. The 2.35 price implies 42.6%: gap +4.6 pp.
- 2The model expects 2.8 goals in total; Kiel's games average 2.3 goals this season.
- 3Furth's games average 3.1 goals, so the total sits close to the line.
The evidence
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.