Germany · Bundesliga · 30 Oct 2026, 19:30
Elversberg vs Mainz
Upcoming · kicks off 19:30
Our callElversberg win or drawDouble chance · Betano
Odds1.65
Stake0.5u
RiskLow
ConfidenceConfidence 1/5
Market (odds)60.6%
Our model70.5%
Edge
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:19
- Final checkDue about 18:15
Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 29 Oct 2026, 09:19
Elversberg or draw at 1.65: the model sees them far closer to Mainz than the price does
- Model47 / 23 / 29 %Elversberg / draw / Mainz
- Market31 / 25 / 44 %Betano, margin out
Why we make this call
Elversberg or draw at 1.65: the model sees them far closer to Mainz than the price does. Model: Elversberg or draw 70.6% against 60.6% in the Betano price (1.65): +10 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model: Elversberg or draw 70.6% against 60.6% in the Betano price (1.65): +10 pp.
- 2Model has Elversberg 47%, draw 23%, Mainz 29%; Betano 2.95 / 3.70 / 2.12.
- 3Both sides have 10 points; Mainz are 7th, Elversberg 8th, after seven matches.
- 4Mainz have lost three of their last five.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is the Betano price with the margin taken out.
Elversberg winmarket 31% · model 47%
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.