Spain · LaLiga · 26 Oct 2026, 20:00

Sevilla 2 – 0 Osasuna

Finished1st Half 1–0 · 2nd Half 1–0

Our reportAdvance: Osasuna to win at 5.08 has a 6.7 pp gap, and the underlying numbers back itRead it →

Key moments

SevillaOsasuna

Romero I. (Fofana Y.)⚽24'
Correia F. (assist Fofana Y.)⚽82'

All events

SevillaOsasuna

1st Half1–0

Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 15:53
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 18:00
Final checkNot done before kickoff

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 26 Oct 2026, 18:00

Advance: Osasuna to win at 5.08 has a 6.7 pp gap, and the underlying numbers back it

Model26%Osasuna to win
Market19%Osasuna, margin out (Tipsport 5.08)
Gap+6.7 ppmodel against price without margin
xG per game1.46 / 1.32Osasuna / Sevilla, 9 matches
Goals against xG-3.1 / -2.1Osasuna / Sevilla, goals minus xG
Out3 / 3Sevilla / Osasuna

1Model: Osasuna 26%, draw 26%, Sevilla 48%. Market without margin (Tipsport): 19%, 27%, 53%.
2For: Osasuna xG 1.46 a game against 1.32, 3.1 goals below xG, and 2.1 big chances against 1.6.
3Against: Osasuna won once in five, concede 2.0 a game and are the long shot at 5.08.
4Draw no bet (3.50) is the safer way into the same view, with a 8.5 pp gap against its price.

Opportunities

Osasuna xG is 13.1 against 11.9 for Sevilla, yet they scored 10 against 14: results lag the play.
Sevilla are 2.8 points ahead of their xPTS; Osasuna are 1.5 behind theirs.
Osasuna lead the head to head: 5 wins, 4 draws, 1 for Sevilla; the last meeting ended 2-1.
Sevilla lose Sierra (rating 7.11) and Marcao; their three red cards in nine games are a risk for them.

Risks

Osasuna have one win in their last five and concede 2.0 goals a game.
Osasuna score only 1.1 a game and miss Del Castillo, Oroz and Herrando.
Nine matches each: season xG and xPTS gaps are noisy.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests: a gap like this is treated as noise.
Odds drifted from 4.73 to 5.08 since the screening: check the price again before the whistle.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the odds with the bookmaker margin taken out.

Sevilla winmarket 53% · model 48%

Drawmarket 27% · model 26%

Osasuna winmarket 19% · model 26%

Other markets: model against the odds

Prices without margin, from a second bookmaker feed. Only 1X2 prices are stored for tips.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Nine matches each.

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

Osasuna create more and concede about the same; nine matches each.

SevillaOsasuna

1.32xG for1.46

1.63xG against1.65

Points against expectation

Sevilla are ahead of their xPTS, Osasuna behind.

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Sevilla4-2-3-1 · avg rating 6.60

6.4Ure

6.8Correia

6.4

Where they stand

Standing and context

LaLiga after nine matches each.

Metric	Sevilla	Osasuna
Position	6th, 14 pts	12th, 11 pts
Record	4W 2D 3L (14:16)	3W 2D 4L (10:18)
Last five	2W 1D 2L	1W 1D 3L
Manager	Luis García	Jagoba Arrasate
Referee	Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias: 4.49 cards a match

Head to head

Recent meetings

Osasuna have the better recent record.

Item	Detail
Series	Osasuna 5 wins, 4 draws, Sevilla 1 win
Last meeting	Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla
Kick-off	Mon 26 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon

Screening · 15:53 · Candidate: Osasuna to win at 4.73, +5.0 pp against the market

Osasuna to win: model 26.1% against 20.8% in the market, odds 4.73.
A gap of 5.0 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 12%1–0 10%2–1 9%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Sevilla goals, columns are Osasuna goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	7	4	2	<1	<1
1	10	12	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	3	1	<1	<1
4	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Sevilla and 5 for Osasuna.

	Sevilla	Osasuna
Goals per game	1.6	1.1
Shots on target	4.3	4.3
Big chances	1.6	2.1
Possession	41%	46%
Goals conceded	1.8	2.0
Duels won	49%	49%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	7	4	2	<1	<1
1	10	12	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	3	1	<1	<1
4	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	7	4	2	<1	<1
1	10	12	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	3	1	<1	<1
4	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

1st Half1–0

After the match

More matches on Monday, 26 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

1st Half1–0

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Monday, 26 Oct 2026

2nd Half1–0

Line-ups

Sevilla

Starting line-up

Osasuna

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Sevilla: expected line-up

Osasuna: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Other markets: model against the odds

Team comparison

Season profile

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

Points against expectation

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Head to head

Recent meetings

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Osasuna to win, Tipsport

Defending and discipline

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	7	4	2	<1	<1
1	10	12	7	2	<1	<1
2	8	9	5	2	<1	<1
3	4	5	3	1	<1	<1
4	2	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1