Europe · Champions League · 20 Oct 2026, 20:00

Stuttgart 1 – 1 Atl. Madrid

Finished1st Half 1–0 · 2nd Half 0–1

Our reportDropped: Atlético have the better numbers, and no other market shows a gap the data supportRead it →

Key moments

StuttgartAtl. Madrid

Leweling J.⚽36'
47'⚽Alvarez J. (assist Lookman A.)
64'🟥Hjulmand M.

Stuttgart vs Atl. Madrid prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 10:58
Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 11:49
Final checkNot needed

Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 20 Oct 2026, 11:49

Dropped: Atlético have the better numbers, and no other market shows a gap the data support

Market29%Stuttgart, without the margin
Model44%Stuttgart
xG difference a game-0.41 / +0.83Stuttgart / Atlético, league
Points vs xPTS-1.3 / +4.7Stuttgart / Atlético
Rest3 / 3 daysStuttgart / Atlético
Out or doubtful6 / 2Stuttgart / Atlético

1Market: Stuttgart 29% (Tipsport 3.33, margin out). Model: 44%, a 14 pp gap.
2In their leagues Atlético's xG difference is +0.83 a game; Stuttgart's is -0.41, with 2.63 xG against.
3Stuttgart lost three of their last four Bundesliga games; Atlético have won six in a row.
4Other markets: on goals the model and the price agree within 5 pp; only Stuttgart-side bets show a gap.

Opportunities

Atlético's 22 league points run 4.7 above their xPTS (17.3): part of the run is luck.
Stuttgart made 5.5 big chances a game in two Champions League wins; Atlético 1.5.
Atlético miss centre-back Cristian Romero; Pubill and Hancko are expected to pair.

Risks

Stuttgart allow 2.63 xG a game in the Bundesliga, with 6 points from 6 matches.
Stuttgart have six players out or doubtful, three of them defenders.
The cup model is new and has not yet been compared with the market.
Gaps above 10 pp have been the least reliable in our backtests.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Stuttgart winmarket 30% · model 44%

Drawmarket 25% · model 23%

Atl. Madrid winmarket 48% · model 33%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

Team comparison

Season profile

League numbers per game (6 and 9 matches); big chances from the two Champions League games.

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

League xG this season: 6 matches for Stuttgart, 9 for Atlético.

StuttgartAtl. Madrid

2.22xG for1.94

2.63xG against1.11

Points against expectation

Stuttgart about one point below their xPTS; Atlético almost five above.

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Oldest first. The thin bar under each result is how unlikely it was; 'before' is the chance the odds gave a win, a draw and a defeat.

Stuttgart6W 0D 4L

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Stuttgart4-2-3-1 · avg rating 7.10

8.1Demirović

7.0Führich

8.0

Where they stand

Standing and context

League and Champions League after the weekend.

Metric	Stuttgart	Atlético Madrid
League	6 pts from 6 (2W 4L, 8:10)	22 pts from 9 (7W 1D 1L, 19:8)
Champions League	4th, 6 pts	15th, 3 pts
Last match	Fri 17/10, Hamburger SV 1-0 Stuttgart	Fri 17/10, Espanyol 0-1 Atlético
Manager	Sebastian Hoeneß	Diego Simeone

Head to head, referee and venue

Referee and venue

Item	Detail
Referee	Serdar Gözübüyük: 3.60 yellows, 0.17 reds a match
Venue	MHP Arena, Stuttgart
Kick-off	Tue 20 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon
Previous meetings	One

Screening · 10:58 · Candidate: Stuttgart to win at 3.33, +13.9 pp against the market

Stuttgart to win: model 44.0% against 29.2% in the market, odds 3.33.
A gap of 13.9 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 9%2–1 9%1–2 7%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Stuttgart goals, columns are Atl. Madrid goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3	4	4	2	<1	<1
1	5	9	7	4	2	<1
2	5	9	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	5	2	1	<1
4	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Stuttgart and 5 for Atl. Madrid.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3	4	4	2	<1	<1
1	5	9	7	4	2	<1
2	5	9	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	5	2	1	<1
4	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Stuttgart	Atl. Madrid
Goals per game	1.3	2.1
xG per game	2.22	1.94
Goals conceded	1.7	0.9
xG against	2.63	1.11
Points per game	1.0	2.4
Big chances (Europe)	5.5	1.5

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3	4	4	2	<1	<1
1	5	9	7	4	2	<1
2	5	9	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	5	2	1	<1
4	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

After the match

What we expected against what happened

More matches on Tuesday, 20 Oct 2026

Key moments

After the match

What we expected against what happened

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Tuesday, 20 Oct 2026

All events

1st Half1–0

2nd Half0–1

Line-ups

Stuttgart

Starting line-up

Atl. Madrid

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

Stuttgart: expected line-up

Atlético Madrid: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Team comparison

Season profile

Underlying quality

Expected goals per game

Points against expectation

Recent form and level of result

Last ten matches

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Head to head, referee and venue

Referee and venue

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Stuttgart to win, Tipsport

Other markets: model against the odds

In the Champions League so far

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3	4	4	2	<1	<1
1	5	9	7	4	2	<1
2	5	9	7	4	2	<1
3	3	5	5	2	1	<1
4	2	3	2	1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1