France · Ligue 1 · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15

Auxerre 1 – 1 Le Mans

Finished1st Half 0–0 · 2nd Half 1–1

Our reportLe Mans to win looks worth a final check: the sides are level on chances, Auxerre have seven outRead it →

Key moments

AuxerreLe Mans

48'⚽Buades L. (assist Bretelle L.)
Archer C.⚽56'

All events

AuxerreLe Mans

1st Half0–0

Auxerre vs Le Mans prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 18:45
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 18:52
Final checkNot done before kickoff

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 24 Oct 2026, 18:52

Le Mans to win looks worth a final check: the sides are level on chances, Auxerre have seven out

Model37.1%Le Mans win
Market27.5%Le Mans win, margin out
Big chances2.4 / 2.6Auxerre / Le Mans, per game
Goals conceded2.4 / 2.1Auxerre / Le Mans, per game
Out or doubtful7 / 4Auxerre / Le Mans

1Model gives Le Mans 37.1%; the market 27.5% (margin out), Tipsport 3.53.
2Big chances are level (2.4 v 2.6) and Le Mans concede fewer (2.1 v 2.4 a game).
3Auxerre have seven players out; Le Mans lose only Bourabaa (rating 7.23).
4Against: Auxerre have more shots on target (5.1 v 4.0) and the better results.

Opportunities

Auxerre are without Dioussé, Okoh, Senaya, Siwe, Labeau Lascary, Fofana and Mandengue.
Auxerre concede 2.4 a game and have kept one clean sheet in seven.

Risks

Le Mans have 6 points to 9, no clean sheet and have conceded 15 in 7.
Auxerre take 5.1 shots on target a game against 4.0 for Le Mans.
Le Mans doubts: Voyer, Colas, Rossignol; both XIs are predicted.
Seven matches each: noisy. Other markets not yet compared with the model.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Auxerre winmarket 48% · model 38%

Drawmarket 26% · model 25%

Le Mans winmarket 28% · model 37%

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven matches each.

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Auxerre3-4-2-1 · avg rating 6.83

7.1Archer

7.3Namaso

7.1

Where they stand

Standing and context

Ligue 1, seven matches each.

Metric	Auxerre	Le Mans
Position	13th, 9 pts	16th, 6 pts
Goals	11 for, 17 against	10 for, 15 against
Last five	L W W L W	D D W L L
Manager	Will Still	Patrick Videira
Referee	Willy Delajod	0.26 / 3.82 cards

Screening · 18:45 · Candidate: Le Mans to win at 3.53, +8.8 pp against the market

Le Mans to win: model 37.1% against 27.5% in the market, odds 3.53.
A gap of 8.8 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	3	1	<1
1	6	11	8	4	2	<1
2	5	8	7	3	1	<1
3	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	3	1	<1
1	6	11	8	4	2	<1
2	5	8	7	3	1	<1
3	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Auxerre	Le Mans
Goals per game	1.6	1.4
Shots on target	5.1	4.0
Big chances	2.4	2.6
Possession	45%	45%
Goals conceded	2.4	2.1
Duels won	48%	45%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	3	1	<1
1	6	11	8	4	2	<1
2	5	8	7	3	1	<1
3	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

1st Half0–0

After the match

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

1st Half0–0

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Sunday, 25 Oct 2026

2nd Half1–1

Line-ups

Auxerre

Starting line-up

Le Mans

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Auxerre: expected line-up

Le Mans: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Team comparison

Season profile

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Defending and discipline

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	5	3	1	<1
1	6	11	8	4	2	<1
2	5	8	7	3	1	<1
3	3	5	4	2	<1	<1
4	1	2	1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1