What we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
Post-match review24 Oct 2026, 18:39
Bolton 1-5 Middlesbrough: the drop was right, the away side dominated
1Result 1-5 (one own goal). Middlesbrough led 3-1 at half time.
Expected goals: Middlesbrough 4.17, Bolton 0.90. Shots 31 to 12, on target 12 to 4.
3Big chances 6 to 0. The model gave Bolton 31.5% at 4.77; they lost heavily.
4The dossier dropped the match, so no tip was at stake.
What we learn
The dossier read Middlesbrough as better on every attacking number: confirmed.
A 10 pp model gap on a weaker side was noise, as the risks said.
The missing Middlesbrough players did not slow their attack.
What we expected against what happened
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
BoltonMiddlesbrough
1.48Goals the model expected1.80
0.90Expected goals in the match (xG)4.17
1Goals scored5
Bolton: expected line-up
Did not start: Ito, Iling-Junior, Dalby. Started, not expected: Bair T., Dong K., Rodrigues R..
8/11expected starters who started
Middlesbrough: expected line-up
The expected line-up was right.
11/11expected starters who started
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
✓ScreeningCandidate · 10:15
✓Detailed analysisDropped after analysis · 10:20
3Final checkNot needed
Dropped after analysisDetailed analysis · 23 Oct 2026, 10:20
Bolton at 4.77 is a gap the data do not back: Middlesbrough are better on every attacking number
Model31%Bolton to win
Market19%Bolton to win, margin out
Goals a game1.4 / 2.0Bolton / Middlesbrough
Big chances a game2.3 / 3.5Bolton / Middlesbrough
Possession50% / 60%Bolton / Middlesbrough
Out or doubtful1 / 3Bolton / Middlesbrough
1Model: Bolton 31%, market about 19% (Tipsport 4.77). The gap is 10.5 pp, but the model reads league ratings only.
2Middlesbrough score 2.0 a game against 1.4, create 3.5 big chances against 2.3 and hold 60% of the ball.
3Their expected XI rates 6.9 against 6.7; they are 3rd and Bolton 15th.
4No concrete case for Bolton, or for a safer line on their side: dropped.
Opportunities
Middlesbrough miss 2.1 big chances a game and have three players out.
Bolton have kept 3 clean sheets in 11, one more than Middlesbrough.
Risks
Middlesbrough lose Alfie Jones, Strelec and Pukstas; Bolton lose only Forino.
Bolton concede 1.6 a game and are outshot 6.2 to 4.7 on target.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests; a 10 pp gap is treated as noise.
The XI is predicted, and both sides have open places.
Market and model
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Bolton winmarket 19% · model 31%
Drawmarket 22% · model 24%
Middlesbrough winmarket 63% · model 45%
Expected goals
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
Team comparison
Season profile
On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Eleven games each.
Expected line-ups and absences
Expected starting XI
Ratings are each player's average this season.
Expected line-ups (not official yet)
Bolton4-2-3-1 · avg rating 6.70
6.9Dalby
6.6Gale
6.5
Where they stand
Standing and context
Championship after eleven matches each.
Metric
Bolton
Middlesbrough
Position
15th
3rd
Goals
15 for, 18 against
22 for, 16 against
Clean sheets
3
2
Manager
Steven Schumacher
Kim Hellberg
Venue
Toughsheet Community Stadium (home)
Away
Screening · 10:15 · Candidate: Bolton to win at 4.77, +10.5 pp against the market
Bolton to win: model 31.5% against 20.1% in the market, odds 4.77.
A gap of 10.5 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.
In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.
The model gives this outcome under 35%: high risk.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 22 Oct 2026, 20:00 to 23 Oct 2026, 20:00
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Middlesbrough