England · Premier League · 23 Oct 2026, 20:00

Ipswich 1 – 1 Nottingham

Finished1st Half 1–1 · 2nd Half 0–0

Our reportForest to win looks worth a small look: the model is above the price and the numbers back itRead it →

Key moments

IpswichNottingham

13'⚽Williams N. (assist Munoz D.)
Enciso J.⚽41'

All events

Ipswich vs Nottingham prediction and analysis · Oddvise

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 10:15
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 10:18
Final checkNot done before kickoff

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 23 Oct 2026, 10:18

Forest to win looks worth a small look: the model is above the price and the numbers back it

Model46%Forest to win
Market41%Forest to win, margin out (bwin 1X2)
Big chances a game3.0 / 2.1Forest / Ipswich
Goals a game0.7 / 1.6Forest / Ipswich
Goals conceded1.3 / 2.1Forest / Ipswich
Out or doubtful3 / 1Forest / Ipswich

1Model: Forest 45.9% against 41-43% in the market; Tipsport pays 2.35.
2Forest create 3.0 big chances a game but score 0.7: finishing, not creation, is the problem.
3Ipswich have conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 7 league games (2.1 a game).
4Main case against: Forest are 19th, on three straight defeats, and play away.

Opportunities

Forest miss 2.4 big chances a game; Ipswich concede 2.1 a game.
Forest average over 19 shots away, the most in the league.
Gibbs-White expected back for Forest; Igor Jesus and Savona still out.

Risks

Forest have scored 5 goals in 7 games and are on three straight defeats.
Ipswich are at home and scored 11 in 7; they took two goals at Man City.
Doubtful: Gibbs-White (Forest), Lukic (Ipswich); the XI is predicted.
Seven games each: all the season numbers are noisy.
The model has not beaten the market in backtests; a 3 pp gap is small.

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.

Ipswich winmarket 31% · model 29%

Drawmarket 29% · model 25%

Nottingham winmarket 43% · model 46%

Expected goals

What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.

Team comparison

Season profile

On each axis the better side reaches the rim. Seven games each.

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Ratings are each player's average this season.

Expected line-ups (not official yet)

Ipswich4-2-3-1 · avg rating 6.60

6.7Emersonn

6.2Maeda

6.6

Where they stand

Standing and context

Premier League after seven matches each.

Metric	Ipswich	Forest
Position	10th, 9 pts	19th, 5 pts
Record	3W 0D 4L (11:15)	1W 2D 4L (5:9)
Last five	L W L W L	D W L L L
Last match	Sat 17/10, Man City 3-2 Ipswich	Arsenal defeat
Manager	Gary O'Neil	Oliver Glasner

Screening · 10:15 · Candidate: Nottingham to win at 2.35, +3.3 pp against the market

Nottingham to win: model 45.9% against 41.4% in the market, odds 2.35.
A gap of 3.3 pp; our minimum for a call is 2 pp.
League ratings only: no line-ups, injuries or form yet. The detailed analysis comes next.

In our backtests the model has not beaten the market: a gap needs a second look.

Most likely scores

From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.

Most likely1–1 12%1–2 9%0–1 8%

Probability of each exact score: rows are Ipswich goals, columns are Nottingham goals
	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	8	7	4	2	<1
1	6	12	9	5	2	<1
2	4	7	6	3	1	<1
3	2	3	3	1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Ipswich and 5 for Nottingham.

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	8	7	4	2	<1
1	6	12	9	5	2	<1
2	4	7	6	3	1	<1
3	2	3	3	1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

	Ipswich	Nottingham
Goals per game	1.6	0.7
Shots on target	4.4	3.6
Big chances	2.1	3.0
Possession	43%	46%
Goals conceded	2.1	1.3
Duels won	48%	50%

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	8	7	4	2	<1
1	6	12	9	5	2	<1
2	4	7	6	3	1	<1
3	2	3	3	1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1

Key moments

All events

After the match

More matches on Friday, 23 Oct 2026

Key moments

All events

After the match

Community

Tips

Talk about it

More matches on Friday, 23 Oct 2026

1st Half1–1

2nd Half0–0

Line-ups

Ipswich

Starting line-up

Nottingham

Starting line-up

At a glance

Statistics

Top stats

Shots

Attack

Passes

Defense

Goalkeeping

What we learn

What we expected against what happened

Ipswich: expected line-up

Match report

Opportunities

Risks

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Expected goals

Team comparison

Season profile

Expected line-ups and absences

Expected starting XI

Where they stand

Standing and context

Odds movement

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Other markets: model against the odds

Chances and finishing

The two XIs compared

Absences

Community

Tips

Talk about it

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	8	7	4	2	<1
1	6	12	9	5	2	<1
2	4	7	6	3	1	<1
3	2	3	3	1	<1	<1
4	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1
5	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1