Published 18 Oct 2026, 11:07 · cannot be editedResult: WON +0.91u · closing odds 2.68
After the match
What we expected before kickoff against what happened. The numbers come from what we stored before the match and from the details read after full time.
What we expected against what happened
The model's goals were set before the match, from league ratings. The xG is what the match produced.
KalamataOFI Crete
2.00Goals the model expected1.20
1.75Expected goals in the match (xG)1.96
4Goals scored3
Why we back Kalamata
Our model gives Kalamata win a 55.5% chance, against 35.5% implied by Tipsport's odds of 2.82: a gap of 20.0 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
1Model probability for Kalamata win: 55.5%. Probability implied by Tipsport at 2.82: 35.5%.
2Model expected goals: Kalamata 2, OFI Crete 1.2.
The evidence
Model against market (1X2)
Market probability is 1 divided by the odds, so it includes the bookmaker margin.
Kalamata winmarket 35% · model 56%
Drawmarket 32% · model 23%
OFI Crete winmarket 41% · model 22%
Expected goals
What the model expects each side to score, from league ratings.
2 - 1.2Kalamata - OFI Crete
Goal markets according to the model
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Odds movement
Tipsport 1X2 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 to 18 Oct 2026, 14:03
4 – 3 
OFI Crete