Italy · Serie A · 2 Nov 2026, 19:45
Atalanta vs Parma
Upcoming · kicks off 19:45
Our callUnder 2.5 goalsTotal goals · Betano
Odds2.07
Stake0.5u
RiskMedium
ConfidenceConfidence 1/5
Market (odds)48.3%
Our model50.6%
Edge+2.3 pp
Fair odds (model)1.98
Match report
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
- ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
- Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:17
- Final checkDue about 18:30
Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 1 Nov 2026, 09:17
Under 2.5 goals at Betano 2.07: the model is 2.3 pp above the price
- Model58 / 24 / 17%Atalanta / draw / Parma
Why we make this call
Under 2.5 goals at Betano 2.07: the model is 2.3 pp above the price. Model: under 2.5 goals 50.6%. Betano 2.07 implies 48.3%: gap 2.3 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.
- 1Model: under 2.5 goals 50.6%. Betano 2.07 implies 48.3%: gap 2.3 pp.
- 2Parma have scored 5 goals in 9 league games; Atalanta are missing Scamacca and Raspadori.
- 3Atalanta are favourites at 1.52, a price above the model's 58.5%, so the win is not taken.
- 4Advance: the absences point towards fewer goals.
The match
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.