Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 29 Oct 2026, 22:30

Bragantino vs Chapecoense-SC

Upcoming · kicks off 22:30

Our callChapecoense-SC win or drawDouble chance · Betano

Odds3.25

Stake0.5u

RiskHigh

Confidence1/5

Market (odds)30.8%

Our model33.3%

Edge

Match report

How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.

ScreeningCandidate · 09:10
Detailed analysisUnder close analysis · 09:21
Final checkDue about 21:15

Under close analysisDetailed analysis · 28 Oct 2026, 09:21

Chapecoense or draw: a big price for a side the model gives a third

Model33.3%Chapecoense or draw
Price3.25Betano: implies 30.8%

Why we make this call

Chapecoense or draw: a big price for a side the model gives a third. Model 33.3% against 30.8% in the 3.25 price on Betano: gap 2.5 pp. This is an estimate, not a guarantee. Confidence and stake are set to the minimum while our track record is empty.

1Model 33.3% against 30.8% in the 3.25 price on Betano: gap 2.5 pp.
2Bragantino have five players out; Chapecoense three.
3The model has Chapecoense or draw at 33%; the price implies 31%.

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Market probability is the Betano odds with the margin taken out.

Bragantino winmarket 71% · model 67%

Drawmarket 18% · model 20%

Odds movement

Tipsport 1X2 · 27 Oct 2026, 22:31 to 27 Oct 2026, 22:31

FirstLatestChange

Bragantino1.291.290.00

Draw5.915.910.00

Chapecoense-SC10.5010.500.00

The match

Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.

Why we make this call

1Model 33.3% against 30.8% in the 3.25 price on Betano: gap 2.5 pp.

2Bragantino have five players out; Chapecoense three.

3The model has Chapecoense or draw at 33%; the price implies 31%.

Bragantino ↓ · Chapecoense-SC →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	4	2	<1	<1	<1
1	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	8	7	3	<1	<1	<1
4	4	4	2	<1

Selection	Odds	Price implies	Model	Gap
Home win	1.29	77.5%	66.7%	-10.8 pp
Draw	5.00	20%	20%	-0.0 pp
Away win	8.50	11.8%	13.3%	+1.6 pp
RB Bragantino or draw	1.07	93.5%	86.7%	-6.8 pp
Chapecoense or draw	3.25	30.8%	33.3%	+2.5 pp
Over 2.5	1.40	71.4%	58.6%	-12.8 pp
Under 2.5	2.35	42.6%	41.4%	-1.2 pp
Both score: yes	1.65	60.6%	51.9%	-8.7 pp
Both score: no	1.87	53.5%	48.1%	-5.4 pp

Bragantino ↓ · Chapecoense-SC →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	4	2	<1	<1	<1
1	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	8	7	3	<1	<1	<1
4	4	4	2	<1	<1	<1
5	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1

Selection	Odds	Price implies	Model	Gap
Home win	1.29	77.5%	66.7%	-10.8 pp
Draw	5.00	20%	20%	-0.0 pp
Away win	8.50	11.8%	13.3%	+1.6 pp
RB Bragantino or draw	1.07	93.5%	86.7%	-6.8 pp
Chapecoense or draw	3.25	30.8%	33.3%	+2.5 pp
Over 2.5	1.40	71.4%	58.6%	-12.8 pp
Under 2.5	2.35	42.6%	41.4%	-1.2 pp
Both score: yes	1.65	60.6%	51.9%	-8.7 pp
Both score: no	1.87	53.5%	48.1%	-5.4 pp

Bragantino vs Chapecoense-SC

Match report

Why we make this call

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

Bragantino vs Chapecoense-SC

Match report

Why we make this call

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

Opportunities

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Other markets: model against the odds

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Prices read

Prices and gaps

Other markets: model against the odds

Most likely scores

Absences

Goal markets according to the model

Prices and gaps

Model

Price

Gap

Out

Kick-off

Bragantino ↓ · Chapecoense-SC →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	4	2	<1	<1	<1
1	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	8	7	3	<1	<1	<1
4	4	4	2	<1	<1	<1
5	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1

Bragantino ↓ · Chapecoense-SC →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	4	2	<1	<1	<1
1	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	8	7	3	<1	<1	<1
4	4	4	2	<1	<1	<1
5	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1

Match report

Why we make this call

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

More matches on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026

Match report

Why we make this call

The evidence

Model against market (1X2)

Odds movement

The match

More matches on Thursday, 29 Oct 2026

Opportunities

Market and model

Model against market (1X2)

Most likely scores

Goal markets according to the model

Other markets: model against the odds

Expected line-ups and absences

Absences

Prices read

Prices and gaps

Other markets: model against the odds

Most likely scores

Absences

Goal markets according to the model

Prices and gaps

Model

Price

Gap

Out

Kick-off

Bragantino ↓ · Chapecoense-SC →	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	4	2	<1	<1	<1
1	10	9	4	1	<1	<1
2	11	10	4	1	<1	<1
3	8	7	3	<1	<1	<1
4	4	4	2	<1	<1	<1
5	2	2	<1	<1	<1	<1