USA · MLS · 29 Oct 2026, 00:30
Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City
How we looked at this match before kickoff: a first screening, a detailed analysis and, close to kickoff, a final check that settles the risks and the decision.
No tip: the model and the market agree on Minnesota
Tipsport 1X2 · 28 Oct 2026, 00:31 to 28 Oct 2026, 00:31
Key moments, statistics and line-ups appear after full time.
Market probability is the bwin odds with the margin taken out.
From the expected goals above, with the model's correction for low scores.
Most likely2–1 9%3–1 8%1–1 7%
| Minnesota United ↓ · Sporting Kansas City → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | <1 | <1 |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | <1 |
Percent. Scores up to 5 goals for Minnesota United and 5 for Sporting Kansas City.
Model probabilities only. No stored prices for these markets.
Home/draw/away, over/under and both-to-score are margin-free; double chance is 1 over the odds (with margin). Prices: bwin.
Injured or suspended, as listed a day ahead.
bwin, read 2026-10-28 09:20 UTC. Gap is the model probability minus 1/odds.
| Selection | Odds | Price implies | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 1.42 | 70.4% | 65.4% | -5.0 pp |
| Draw | 5.00 | 20% | 18.1% | -1.9 pp |
| Away win | 6.00 | 16.7% | 16.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Minnesota United or draw | 1.13 | 88.5% | 83.5% | -5.0 pp |
| Sporting Kansas City or draw | 2.63 | 38% | 34.6% | -3.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 1.33 | 75.2% | 73.7% | -1.5 pp |
| Under 2.5 | 3.40 | 29.4% | 26.3% | -3.1 pp |
| Both score: yes | 1.50 | 66.7% | 66.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Both score: no | 2.50 | 40% | 33.5% | -6.5 pp |
| <1 |
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
|---|